战略与国际研究中心-Defense-Outlook-2018_44页_1mb

Defense Outlook 2018 Summary

Core Content

The Defense Outlook 2018 report, published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), provides an analysis of the U.S. defense strategy and budget documents under the Trump administration. It highlights the strategic direction, resource allocation, and challenges faced by the Department of Defense (DoD) in the context of evolving global threats and domestic policy constraints.

Main Authors and Contributors

• Kathleen H. Hicks
• Mark F. Cancian
• Alice Hunt Friend
• Todd Harrison
• Rebecca K.C. Hersman
• Andrew P. Hunter
• Seth G. Jones
• Thomas Karako
• John Schaus
• Ian Williams
• Seamus P. Daniels
• Ariel Fanger

Key Documents and Strategies

National Security Strategy (NSS) and National Defense Strategy (NDS)

• Released in December 2017, the NSS emphasizes great power competition with China and Russia.
• The NDS, authored by Secretary of Defense James Mattis, outlines a strategy of "defeat and deter" rather than "defeat and deny" as in previous reviews.
• It focuses on lethality, alliances, and defense reform as core themes.
• The strategy aims to pacing multidimensional threats from China and Russia, requiring a substantial increase in defense resources.

Nuclear Posture Review (NPR)

• The NPR, released by Mattis, reintroduces nuclear warfighting and emphasizes the need to deter nonnuclear threats.
• It reflects a shift in nuclear policy, building on Obama-era policies while also introducing new elements.
• Highlights the potential reintroduction of sea-launched nuclear cruise missiles and a symmetrical response to Russia's tactical nuclear weapons growth.

Missile Defense Review (MDR)

• Expected to be released in the spring of 2018, the MDR aims to align missile defense policy with the current security environment.
• It is driven by the technological advances of U.S. adversaries and the renewed focus on inter-state competition with Russia and China.

Budget Overview

Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018 (BBA 2018)

• Signed into law on February 9, 2018, during the second government shutdown of FY 2018.
• Raises spending limits for both defense and nondefense for FY 2018 and FY 2019.
• Increases the base defense budget cap by $165 billion over two years.
• Provides $71 billion in OCO funding for FY 2018 and $69 billion for FY 2019, bringing total defense funding to $700 billion in FY 2018 and $716 billion in FY 2019.

Comparison with Previous Budget Agreements

• BBA 2018 follows the pattern of BBA 2013 and BBA 2015 in raising budget caps.
• The magnitude of BBA 2018 is significantly larger, with a 15% increase in defense budget caps for both FY 2018 and FY 2019.
• Unlike prior agreements, which relied heavily on OCO funding, BBA 2018 focuses more on adjusting base budget caps.

Defense Funding in FY 2018

• The BBA 2018 provides more funding than the Trump administration's initial request.
• The base defense budget is increased from $603 billion to $629 billion.
• OCO funding totals $674 billion for FY 2018, including $64.6 billion in the original request and additional emergency funds.

Challenges and Concerns

Resource vs. Ambition

• The report notes that ambition often outpaces resources, and the Trump administration’s strategy may not be fully achievable due to budget constraints.
• The DoD must execute integrated winning strategies to meet the challenges posed by great power competition.

Force Structure and Modernization Trade-offs

• The DoD is shifting from a focus on two simultaneous all-domain wars to one intensive campaign and a range of other operations.
• There is a trade-off in force structure, with a focus on lower-end capabilities rather than high-end ones.
• Modernization efforts are concentrated on existing programs rather than new, expensive initiatives.

Cultural and Institutional Change

• The report stresses the need for cultural change within the DoD to match the strategic vision.
• There is a lack of major legislative reforms, reduced infrastructure, and joint experimentation hubs.
• The DoD’s ability to reform its acquisition system and increase efficiency is seen as critical to long-term success.

Alliances and International Relations

• The U.S. alliance network is considered a center of gravity for national security, as per Clausewitz.
• However, public statements by the Trump administration, such as drawing "us vs. them" lines, risk undermining alliances and creating electoral dilemmas for foreign leaders.
• The report suggests that diplomacy, trade, and development must be integrated and resourced to support defense efforts.

Defense Reform and the Need for Action

• The National Security Innovation Base is called upon to maintain a technological edge in the face of competition with China and Russia.
• The budget is not yet aligned with the strategy, and there is concern that defense reform may be sidelined due to lack of focus and funding.
• The report warns that without cultural change, the U.S. may not be able to pursue its strategic goals effectively.

Conclusion

The Defense Outlook 2018 underscores the importance of aligning defense strategy with budget realities, focusing on great power competition, and reforming the DoD to meet future security challenges. While the budget deal provides much-needed funding, it does not guarantee strategic success, and cultural and institutional changes are essential to ensure that the U.S. military can maintain its global leadership and respond effectively to evolving threats.