2024-09-26-IEA-整合太阳能和风能_99页_3mb

Integrating Solar and Wind: Global Experience and Emerging Challenges
by International Energy Agency (IEA)

Key Findings

1. Growth and Impact of VRE:

   • Solar PV and wind capacity doubled between 2018–2023, contributing nearly 10% to global electricity generation.
   • By 2030, VRE could provide up to 30% of global electricity, but delaying integration measures risks losing ~15% of generation, equivalent to ~2,000 TWh/year.

2. Integration Phases:

   • IEA’s framework divides VRE integration into six phases, from minimal system impact (Phase 1) to near-exclusive reliance on solar/wind (Phase 6).
   • ~80% of assessed systems (Phase 1–3) can integrate VRE through progressive measures like improved forecasting, demand response, and grid upgrades.

3. Emerging Challenges:

   • System Stability: Declining inertia and grid-forming resources from synchronous generators threaten frequency and voltage stability.
   • Flexibility Needs: Driven by renewable variability, flexibility requirements increase by >50% in Europe and India by 2030.

4. Technological and Policy Solutions:

   • Mature technologies like batteries, demand response, and grid-forming converters address high-phase challenges.
   • Policy recommendations include capacity market reforms, streamlined grid investments, and cross-border cooperation.

Core Recommendations

1. For Low-Phase Systems (Phases 1–3):

   • Prioritize improved forecasting, streamlined grid codes, and demand response to gradually scale VRE.

2. For High-Phase Systems (Phases 4–6):

   • Invest in grid-forming converters, energy storage (long-duration), and sector coupling (e.g., green hydrogen).
   • Implement market-based mechanisms for stability services (e.g., frequency response auctions).

Policy Actions

• Modernize Grid Codes: Ensure VRE plants meet technical requirements for system stability.
• Deploy Sector Coupling: Use VRE surplus for hydrogen production and electrified end-uses.
• Facilitate International Knowledge Sharing: Accelerate policy harmonization and technology transfer.

Source: IEA (Announced Pledges Scenario/Integration Delay Case analysis, 2024)