非洲数字商务与青年就业（英文版）_39页_4mb

Summary: Digital Commerce and Youth Employment in Africa

Core Content

This document explores the potential of digital commerce to drive youth employment in Africa, highlighting both the opportunities and challenges associated with its growth. It outlines a scenario-building approach to help African policymakers understand the possible futures of digital commerce and how they can shape these to create more inclusive and sustainable employment outcomes.

Main Points

Digital Commerce and Its Relevance to Africa

• Definition: Digital commerce refers to the sale of goods and services online, encompassing e-commerce, digital trade, and the gig or sharing economy.
• Current Status: Digital commerce is still in its early stages in Africa, accounting for less than 1% of retail sales, compared to over 14% in the US and China.
• Potential Impact: It has the potential to increase intra-African trade and support the objectives of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and Agenda 2063.
• Key Sectors: The document focuses on segments of digital commerce most likely to generate youth employment, such as the sale of physical goods (domestic and cross-border) and gig platforms offering physical services.

Is Rising Digital Commerce Inevitable?

• Positive Forces:

  • Growing Labor Force: Africa's labor force is expected to grow significantly, with over 100 million young people entering the market in the next decade.
  • Urbanization: Urban populations are set to rise, increasing access to digital infrastructure and improving the logistics of delivery.
  • Internet Connectivity: Mobile internet users are projected to reach 500 million by 2020, with 70% of mobile subscriptions expected to be internet-connected by 2030.
  • Digital Payments: Increasing access to and use of digital payments is reducing transaction barriers and enabling more online transactions.
  • Superplatforms: The growth of large digital platforms is driving innovation and creating ecosystems that support employment.

• Uncertainties:

  • Global Trade and Tax Regimes: Whether these will align to support digital commerce growth.
  • Regional Strategies: Whether regional cooperation will lead to a cohesive digital commerce policy framework.
  • National Policy Environment: Whether national laws will be adaptable to support the rise of digital commerce.
  • Worker Organization: Whether workers will gain enough influence to reshape the political landscape of digital commerce.

How Digital Commerce Affects Employment

• Three Channels:

  1. Direct Employment: Growth of digital commerce platforms and their logistics chains can create jobs for small vendors, logistics providers, and digital helpers.
  2. Indirect Employment: Digital commerce lowers entry barriers for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), especially in the B2C space, by reducing working capital needs and enabling easier access to markets.
  3. Changing Nature of Work: Digital platforms are reshaping the structure of work, enabling more flexible and diverse employment opportunities. This includes the emergence of a new group of workers called iWorkers (individuals who are both consumers and producers in digital commerce), which could grow to over 10% of the labor force by 2030.

• Informal Sector: Many African workers are in the informal sector, and digital commerce offers a path toward formalization, providing them with a route to benefits and protections.

Policy Options for African Policymakers

• Promote Digital Commerce: Encourage the development of digital infrastructure, support local platforms, and facilitate cross-border trade.
• Promote Employment: Implement policies that enable access to digital skills, support the formalization of the informal sector, and reduce barriers to entry for SMEs.
• Test-and-Learn Approach: Experiment with policy sandboxes to test the impact of relaxed regulations and new employment contracts, especially in areas where national labor and tax laws may hinder digital commerce growth.

Why This Issue is Important Now

• Sustainable Development Goal (SDG 8): Governments are under pressure to promote full employment and decent work for all, especially for youth.
• Digital Commerce as a Double-Edged Sword: While it can create new opportunities, it also poses risks, such as job displacement and formal-informal employment divides.
• Need for Proactive Policy: Policymakers must act now to shape the future of digital commerce in Africa and ensure it supports youth employment.

Key Information

• Youth Employment Challenge: Over 100 million young people will enter the labor market in Africa by 2030.
• Digital Commerce Growth: Expected to rise due to increasing internet access, digital payment systems, and the expansion of platforms.
• iWorkers: A new group of workers who are both consumers and producers in digital commerce, potentially making up over 10% of the labor force by 2030.
• Policy Recommendations: Collect better local data, monitor international developments, and encourage training and education in digital commerce skills.
• Regional and International Context: The outcomes of international and continental negotiations will significantly influence the trajectory of digital commerce in Africa.

Conclusion

Digital commerce has the potential to transform youth employment in Africa, but its success depends on the right policy environment. Policymakers must be proactive, using scenario thinking and a test-and-learn approach to create an inclusive and supportive framework for digital commerce growth. The coming years will be critical in determining whether digital commerce becomes a key driver of employment and economic opportunity in Africa.