2025-06-12-花旗集团-巴基斯坦经济_2025-2026财年预算的关键要点_10页_177kb

Pakistan's FY2026 budget targets a deficit of 3.9% (lowest in 19 years) and primary surplus of 2.4% (a historical high), exceeding IMF projections. However, revenue challenges persist due to optimistic growth/inflation assumptions, limited new taxes, no replication of last year's windfall, and unconfirmed provincial tax implementation details. Tax enforcement penalties were introduced to increase compliance. Spending is expected to remain flat, with increases in defense and development offset by lower interest and subsidies. The budget aligns with the IMF program and aims for US$550mn external borrowing; its success depends on revenue collection, especially given the 13% nominal GDP growth assumption that drives revenue projections.