Morgan_Stanley_Fixed-Cross-Asset_Spotlight_Signals,_Flows_Key_Data-112989814_27页_4mb

报告摘要

Global Equity Regime: Market sentiment turned risk-on, associated with above-average forward returns for global equities.
Currency Fluctuations: USD experienced its largest one-day drop in 14 months (-1.3%). Euro Stoxx 50 reached its highest level since 2000.
Bond Flows: U.S. ETFs focused on municipal bonds saw the largest weekly inflow of US$1.2 billion since November 2023.

Among global equity indices, only the Topix saw losses, while DAX outperformed with a +4.3% gain.
U.S. Treasury yields declined, with the 2s10s curve experiencing a +2SD monthly move.
Currencies appreciated against the USD, with IDR being the exception (down -0.5%). Crude prices lagged, while gold and silver outperformed.
Sector Performance: In global equities, utilities (+4.9%) had a positive performance, while healthcare (-0.4%) saw negative returns.

Cross-asset correlations, especially between equities and rates, rose to levels seen over the past five years.
The Composite Sigma Indicator (CSI) highlighted market volatility, with notable extreme moves in currencies and commodities.

U.S. Municipal Bonds: ETF inflows reached US$1.2bn, the highest since November 2023.
Global ETF Flows: Assets tracked across ~5,000 ETFs (>$7tn) showed strong inflows into U.S. equities and fixed income. YTD US ETF flows reached ~US$1.3tn.

Equities: Forward P/E ratios indicate MSCI ACWI and S&P 500 remain expensive. Nasdaq and small-cap stocks are attractively valued.
Credit: IG spreads tightened globally, with HY credit showing higher demand. Yields on UST and EU bonds remain high (above 4% in EU10Y), suggesting shorter-term positioning.
Commodities: Brent crude and gold are overbought; copper and silver are modestly in demand.
Currency Valuation: EUR/USD and GBP/USD appear overvalued compared to historical benchmarks.

2025 Forecast: Morgan Stanley anticipates above-average returns across global equities, but heightened volatility in currencies and rates. Risk-on strategies may yield substantial returns.

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