2000年-世界发展银行全球_Indonesia___Oil_and_Gas_Sector_Study_165页_11mb

Indonesia Oil and Gas Sector Study Summary

Core Content

This report, published by the World Bank in June 2000, provides an in-depth analysis of Indonesia's oil and gas sector and outlines key recommendations for reform. The study was conducted in response to the Indonesian Government's request for support in four main reform areas: efficiency-based pricing, rationalization of upstream activities, liberalization of downstream activities, and drafting a new oil and gas law.

Main Issues and Recommendations

1. Energy Product Pricing

• Current Situation: Domestic prices of regulated petroleum products (BBM) are significantly below international prices. Prices of key products such as kerosene, ADO, and IDO do not cover production costs, leading to economic distortions and inefficiencies.
• Subsidy Costs: In 1999, the cost of subsidies for the five BBM products was about US$4.9 billion, or 5% of GDP. The loss in economic efficiency from these subsidies was estimated at US$1.4 billion.
• Benefits of Eliminating Subsidies: Removing subsidies over five years would reduce government expenditures by US$22 billion and increase foreign exchange earnings by US$11.5 billion. Environmental benefits would include a reduction of US$5 billion in damages from particulate matter and nitrogen oxides, and an additional US$6 billion if leaded gasoline is phased out.
• Proposed Adjustments and Timetable: The report recommends a gradual increase in fuel prices over five years, with the ultimate goal of full deregulation. Adjustments are specified in Table 1 for each product, with the timeline starting from September 2000. If international prices decline, the phase-out of subsidies should be accelerated.

2. Pertamina's Role and Functions

• Performance Issues: Pertamina's operations are inefficient and its structure leads to conflicts of interest. It competes with the private companies it oversees and has a monopoly in downstream activities, especially in refining, which is a major source of inefficiency.
• Recommendations for Reform:
  • Conduct a focused assessment of reform options, including the creation of legally binding subsidiaries.
  • Initiate a major divestiture and/or partial privatization program.
  • Unbundle Pertamina's functions, particularly by separating the Foreign Contractors Coordinating and Management Body (BPPKA) from Pertamina and placing it under the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME).
  • Ensure equal participation of Pertamina and private companies in upstream activities.
  • Remove Pertamina's monopoly in downstream and improve refinery efficiency.

3. Production Sharing Contracts (PSCs)

• Current Situation: PSCs are generally appropriate, but some fiscal and non-fiscal terms are not sufficiently progressive, especially under low oil price conditions.
• Recommendations:
  • Review the First Tranche Petroleum (FTP) rate to possibly reduce it for high-cost fields.
  • Ensure that contractors receive world prices for domestic supply before liberalization.
  • Apply investment credits more equally across all areas and reconsider the rate and mechanism.
  • Link the State's profit share directly to achieved cash flow.
  • Renegotiate existing PSCs only with mutual agreement with contractors.

4. Legislative Framework

• Current Situation: Existing laws and regulations are inadequate and not conducive to a modern, efficient industry.
• Recommendations:
  • Draft a new, clear, and transparent oil and gas law consistent with international best practices.
  • Develop comprehensive supporting regulations aligned with the law.
  • Decide on the structure of regulatory agencies (e.g., whether to have separate agencies for hydrocarbons and power).
  • Issue new petroleum product specifications and health, safety, and environmental standards.

5. Institutional Capacity

• Weaknesses: Sector institutions are weak, especially as regulatory responsibilities increase due to reforms.
• Recommendations: Strengthen the administrative apparatus of the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME), particularly its capacity to supervise and regulate PSCs.

Key Information

• Sector Importance: Indonesia's oil and gas sector is crucial to the economy, contributing 27% of government revenues and 5% of GDP.
• Market Context: The sector performs below its potential due to inefficiencies, subsidies, and regulatory issues.
• Environmental Impact: Subsidies and pricing distortions lead to environmental degradation, particularly from leaded gasoline and emissions.
• Political Climate: The new political climate provides an opportunity for urgent reform to address the sector's challenges.
• Implementation Plan: A clear and comprehensive government policy declaration is essential to outline the vision, objectives, and actions for reform.
• Subsidy Reforms: A direct cash payment vouchering system is recommended to deliver subsidies to the poor, with implementation details to be investigated.
• Downstream Liberalization: Open access to infrastructure, sale of service stations, and full liberalization of the refining subsector are recommended to promote competition and efficiency.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the need for comprehensive reform of Indonesia's oil and gas sector, including rationalizing energy product prices, restructuring Pertamina, revising PSCs, and establishing a modern legislative framework. These reforms are critical to enhancing economic efficiency, promoting private investment, and ensuring sustainable development.