2012年-世界发展银行全球_Development_of_Biofuels_in_China___Technologies_Economics_and_Policies_36页_1000kb

Summary of "Development of Biofuels in China: Technologies, Economics and Policies"

Core Content

This paper analyzes the development of biofuels in China, focusing on technologies, economics, and policies, and evaluates the feasibility of achieving the 2020 biofuel targets set by the Medium and Long-Term Development Plan for Renewable Energy in 2007. It also provides projections under various policy scenarios.

Main Points

• Biofuel Targets: The 2010 biofuel targets were largely met, except for non-grain fuel ethanol. The 2020 targets are more challenging, with the non-grain fuel ethanol target potentially requiring additional fiscal incentives due to high production costs, while the biodiesel target is more achievable due to its smaller scale.

• Current Status:

  • Fuel Ethanol: As of 2010, China had only five fuel ethanol plants producing 1.86 million tonnes of ethanol, with only 0.37 million tonnes using non-grain feedstocks.
  • Biodiesel: Biodiesel production is mainly carried out by private enterprises using waste oil, with a total capacity of about 1.5 million tonnes. Some companies have adopted advanced technologies.
  • Key Players: Major oil companies (CNPC, SINOPEC, CNOOC) and a large agri-business company (COFCO) are involved in biofuel production, with COFCO and CNOOC focusing on non-grain feedstocks like cassava and jatropha.

• Technological Pathways:

  • Non-grain Starch and Sugar Crops: Cassava, sweet sorghum, and sweet potato are the main non-grain feedstocks. These crops have significant resource potential, especially on marginal land.
  • Waste Oil: Waste oil is a major feedstock for biodiesel, with potential availability of 2.68 to 4.02 million tonnes annually if 50% of waste oil can be collected.
  • Oil-bearing Trees: Species such as jatropha and xanthoceras sorbifolia are promising for biodiesel production. Marginal land, including forest barren lands, is a viable resource base.

• Economic Analysis:

  • The cost of biofuel production is heavily influenced by feedstock prices, which account for over 50% of total costs for ethanol and up to 80% for biodiesel.
  • Ethanol: Cassava-based ethanol has the lowest production cost, while sweet sorghum has higher costs due to lower conversion efficiency and long fermentation times.
  • Biodiesel: Waste oil-based biodiesel is the most economically viable, but its production cost is still higher than that of diesel. Oil-bearing trees require significant investment and time to mature.

• Challenges:

  • Feedstock Supply: Limited domestic markets for sweet sorghum and reliance on imports for cassava and cassava starch pose risks to cost stability and sustainability.
  • Land Use: Marginal land is a key resource for biofuel development, but it requires water and fertilizers. The use of marginal land for biofuels could compete with food production.
  • Environmental Impact: The production of biofuels from starch and sugar crops may not be as sustainable as fossil fuels due to indirect coal consumption during cultivation.
  • Policy and Market Barriers: A lack of collection systems for waste oil and limited policy support for oil-bearing trees hinder their development.

Key Information

• Non-grain Fuel Ethanol:

  • Has significant potential, but high production costs may prevent meeting the 2020 target without additional fiscal support.
  • Resource potential on marginal land is estimated at 65.48–88.57 million tonnes of ethanol.
  • Conversion efficiency varies, with sweet sorghum having the highest efficiency.

• Biodiesel:

  • Can be produced from waste oil and oil-bearing trees.
  • Waste oil-based biodiesel has a total production cost of 5,000–7,000 Yuan per tonne, with feedstock cost accounting for 71.11–79.37%.
  • Oil-bearing trees require 36 million hectares of marginal land, with jatropha and xanthoceras sorbifolia being the most promising species.

• Policy Implications:

  • The paper suggests that additional fiscal incentives and supportive policies are needed to ensure the successful development of non-grain fuel ethanol.
  • Strengthening the collection system for waste oil and promoting the use of oil-bearing trees are critical for achieving biodiesel targets.
  • The Chinese government has emphasized non-grain biofuel development in various policy documents, indicating a strategic shift away from food-based feedstocks.

Conclusion

China has made progress in biofuel development, particularly in biodiesel and biomass power. However, meeting the 2020 targets, especially for non-grain fuel ethanol, will require significant policy support and economic incentives. The paper highlights the importance of resource availability, technological advancement, and sustainable practices in ensuring the long-term viability of biofuels in China.