2009年-世界发展银行全球_Wind_Power_Development___Economics_and_Policies_34页_506kb

Wind Power Development: Economics and Policies Summary

Core Content

This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the current status, resource potential, and development prospects of wind power globally, with a focus on economic and policy considerations. It highlights the role of policy instruments and climate change initiatives in promoting wind energy and discusses the challenges that hinder its widespread adoption.

Main Points

• Global Wind Power Status:

  • Installed global wind generating capacity increased from 10 MW in 1980 to 94,124 MW by the end of 2007.
  • The majority of installed wind power capacity (85%) is located in developed countries and China/India.
  • The top ten countries account for over 86% of global wind capacity.
  • Wind power currently contributes about 1% to global electricity supply, despite a 40% annual growth rate in generating capacity over the past 25 years.
  • Wind capacity is expected to surpass 100,000 MW by the end of 2008.

• Resource Potential and Future Prospects:

  • The Earth has significant wind energy potential, with estimates suggesting it could supply 7 to 34% of global electricity needs by 2050.
  • Studies indicate that wind power could supply 5% to 34.3% of global electricity by 2050, depending on the development scenario.
  • Under the BLUE scenario, wind power could supply 34.3% of global electricity by 2050, requiring a dramatic increase in capacity and growth rates.
  • The U.S. Department of Energy estimates that 20% of the nation's electricity could be supplied by wind by 2030, which would result in significant CO₂ reductions.

• Cost Analysis:

  • Wind power generation costs depend on factors such as wind speed, turbine costs, grid access, and site accessibility.
  • Levelized costs of wind power (both onshore and offshore) are competitive with other technologies, especially when externalities like CO₂ emissions are considered.
  • In 2008, the levelized cost of wind power was as low as $89.10/MWh, making it one of the cheapest electricity generation options.
  • The cost of wind power is influenced by government incentives, discount rates, and fuel prices.

• Barriers to Development:

  • Wind power faces several barriers, including technical, economic, financial, market, and institutional challenges.
  • Technical barriers include lack of transmission access, difficulty in transporting equipment, and intermittency of wind.
  • Economic and financial barriers include high initial investment and the need for long-term financing.
  • Market barriers include the lack of a stable and predictable market for wind energy.
  • Institutional barriers include the absence of regulatory frameworks and capacity constraints in developing countries.

Key Information

• Policy Instruments:

  • Countries have used various policy tools such as capital subsidies, tax incentives, tradable energy certificates, feed-in tariffs, grid access guarantees, and mandatory standards to promote wind power.
  • Climate change mitigation initiatives, such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Clean Development Mechanism, have played a significant role in supporting wind energy development.

• Environmental Considerations:

  • Wind power is considered a clean and sustainable energy source that can significantly reduce CO₂ emissions.
  • Life cycle cost analyses suggest that wind power could be as competitive as fossil fuels when environmental externalities are appropriately accounted for.

• Future Outlook:

  • Wind power is expected to grow rapidly in the coming decades, especially in OECD countries and emerging economies like China and India.
  • The paper emphasizes the need for policies that reduce market barriers and support research and development to further lower the cost of wind turbine technology.

Conclusion

Wind power has substantial potential to contribute to global electricity supply and reduce carbon emissions. However, its current low penetration in the global energy mix is due to a combination of technical, economic, financial, market, and institutional barriers. To achieve a more diversified and sustainable energy portfolio, it is essential to implement effective policies and strategies that address these barriers and promote the adoption of wind energy. The paper underscores the importance of continued research, development, and investment in wind power infrastructure to realize its full potential in the future.