2021-05-31-UNDP-数字货币和CBDC对最不发达国家的影响（英文）_24页_988kb

digital currencies and their macroeconomic impacts, particularly on least developed countries (LDCs), are the focus of this technical paper. Key themes include the evolution of digital currencies such as central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), stablecoins, and e-money; their potential benefits and risks; and the need for inclusive governance approaches.

• Purpose and overview: The paper examines how digital currencies could enhance financial inclusion, reduce transaction costs, and support sustainable development in LDCs through innovations like CBDCs. However, it also highlights risks such as currency substitution, volatility, and challenges to monetary and fiscal policy control, especially in economies with weak financial infrastructure.

• Key findings:

  • CBDCs, stablecoins, and e-money: CBDCs can improve access for unbanked populations but may lead to loss of currency sovereignty if foreign or global stablecoins gain adoption. Stablecoins pose consumer and systemic risks, including market manipulation and disintermediation.
  • Impacts on LDCs: Digital currencies can foster financial inclusion and efficient payments, but negative effects like capital flight, reduced government tax collection, and financial instability are significant. The report emphasizes that LDCs are vulnerable due to limited regulatory capacity and existing dependencies on foreign financial systems.
  • Broader context: African economies, home to many LDCs, show high potential for digital currency adoption (e.g., through mobile money for inclusion). The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated digital transformation, increasing risks but also opportunities for development.
  • Risks and recommendations: Concerns include shadow banking by BigFintechs, which circumvents traditional regulations, leading to competitive advantages and potential market dominance. Mitigation requires robust regulatory frameworks, international coordination (e.g., through UN agencies and central banks), and proactive governance to control currency sovereignty and support sustainable development.

In conclusion, while digital currencies offer tools for economic growth, they demand careful regulation, enhanced monitoring, and inclusive policies to address risks and leverage benefits, particularly for LDCs to remain resilient in a globalized financial system.