深度-UNDP-数字货币和CBDC对最不发达国家的影响（英文）-2021.6-24页_988kb

Summary of Technical Paper 1.2: Digital Currencies and CBDC Impacts on Least Developed Countries (LDCs)

Core Content

This technical paper explores the macroeconomic impacts and regulatory challenges of digital currencies and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), with a specific focus on Least Developed Countries (LDCs). It is part of the Dialogue on Global Digital Finance Governance, hosted by the Swiss and Kenyan Governments and jointly managed by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and United Nations Capital Development Fund (UNCDF). The paper aims to deepen understanding of how digital currencies, including CBDCs and stablecoins, could influence financial systems and sustainable development goals in LDCs.

Main Themes and Focus Areas

Theme 1: BigFintechs and Their Impacts on Sustainable Development

• The paper examines the role of BigFintechs (BFTs) in the digital finance ecosystem, particularly their use of government-issued and private-issued digital currencies.
• It highlights the need for regulatory frameworks that address the broader implications of BFTs on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), not just financial stability or consumer protection.
• The paper emphasizes the importance of including the voices of LDCs in shaping governance arrangements for digital finance platforms.

Theme 2: Corporate Governance Innovations

• While not the focus of this paper, the broader Dialogue on Global Digital Finance Governance explores how corporate governance innovations can integrate SDG considerations into digital finance policy.

Theme 3: BigFintechs and International Governance

• The paper underscores the global nature of digital finance platforms and their cross-border implications, especially in the context of LDCs.
• It discusses the potential for digital currencies to reduce transaction costs and enhance remittance efficiency, but also highlights the risks of bypassing economic sanctions and affecting international relations.

Key Points and Findings

• Digital Currencies Overview: Digital currencies include both DLT-based and non-DLT-based forms, such as mobile money, e-money, stablecoins, and CBDCs. They are seen as innovations in payment systems and virtual money.
• Positive Impacts: Digital currencies, especially mobile money, have had a significant positive impact on financial inclusion in LDCs, enabling access to financial services for unbanked populations.
• Regulatory Challenges:
  • The rise of mobile money has led to near monopolies by MFS providers, raising concerns about the traditional banking sector and consumer protection.
  • Regulatory gaps exist, particularly in the context of stablecoins and the potential risks of BFTs dominating the digital money space.
• CBDCs and Their Implications:
  • CBDCs have the potential to influence monetary and fiscal policy in LDCs, particularly through currency substitution and changes in money supply control.
  • The design of CBDCs plays a crucial role in determining their macroeconomic impact, including their use in domestic or international contexts.
  • Some countries have started piloting CBDCs, such as the National Bank of Cambodia's Bakong, the DC/EP in China, and the e-Krona in Sweden. These initiatives are part of a growing trend.
• Stablecoins and Global Platforms:
  • The Diem (formerly Libra) project exemplifies the potential of global stablecoins to reshape monetary systems and raise macroeconomic concerns.
  • Stablecoins could undermine national monetary sovereignty and create challenges for central banks in maintaining control over money supply.
• Africa as a Focal Point:
  • Africa, home to most LDCs, is a key region for digital currency innovation, particularly in mobile money and financial inclusion.
  • The paper also considers the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the digitalization of payment systems and the role of CBDCs in this context.
• Shadow Banking and Risks:
  • Digital currencies, especially stablecoins, could enable shadow banking activities, which may bypass traditional financial oversight mechanisms.
  • The paper warns about the potential risks to global financial stability and the need for comprehensive regulatory frameworks.

Potential Risks and Implications

• Macro and Microeconomic Risks:
  • The availability of foreign currency-denominated CBDCs and GSCs could create a growing gap between national fiscal and monetary policy and the actual capabilities of LDCs to implement them.
  • There are concerns about the monopolistic tendencies of BFTs and their impact on financial competition and consumer protection.
• Regulatory Gaps:
  • The paper identifies the need for inclusive governance that involves LDCs in shaping digital finance policies.
  • The lack of regulatory clarity and enforcement mechanisms poses a challenge for the effective integration of digital currencies into existing financial systems.
• Future Outlook:
  • The paper suggests that governance innovations are necessary to address the macroeconomic implications of digital currencies and to ensure that LDCs are not left behind in the global digital finance transition.
  • It highlights the urgency of studying the large-scale impacts of digital currencies, particularly in the context of developing economies.

Conclusion

• The paper concludes that the macroeconomic impacts of digital currencies must be considered in the context of their design choices, which remain highly theoretical and subject to political and regulatory challenges.
• It emphasizes the importance of understanding the evolving landscape of digital currencies and their associated regulations, especially for LDCs.
• The need for inclusive, principles-based governance is underscored, with a call for greater international collaboration and regulatory alignment to address the risks and opportunities of digital finance in developing economies.

Key Examples

• Bakong (Cambodia): A CBDC that aims to enhance financial inclusion and reduce reliance on traditional banking systems.
• DC/EP (China): A digital form of money that is part of a broader strategy to modernize the financial system and increase efficiency in commercial settlements.
• e-Krona (Sweden): A CBDC that is being tested to explore the feasibility of digital currency in a developed economy.
• Diem (formerly Libra): A global stablecoin project that raised concerns about monetary sovereignty and regulatory oversight.

Authors

• Katherine Foster: Executive Strategy Officer at Open Earth Foundation; involved in SDG-related policy discussions.
• Sofie Blakstad: CEO of hiveonline and author of Fintech Revolution: Universal Inclusion in the New Financial Ecosystem.
• Sangita Gazi: Research Fellow at the Asian Institute of International Financial Law (AIIFL), University of Hong Kong.
• Martijn Bos: Financial Technology & Financial Inclusion Consultant; co-author of The European Fintech Landscape in Green Digital Finance.

References and Context

• The paper references the Dialogue on Global Digital Finance Governance, which was established by the UN Secretary General's Task Force on Digital Financing of the SDGs.
• It highlights the increasing interest in CBDCs and stablecoins, with examples from China, the Bahamas, and Sweden.
• The paper also discusses the role of BFTs in shaping the future of digital finance and the need for international regulatory coordination.

Final Notes

• The paper concludes that while digital currencies offer opportunities for financial inclusion and efficiency, they also pose significant risks to macroeconomic stability and sovereignty in LDCs.
• It calls for a comprehensive, inclusive governance approach that considers the broader implications of digital finance on the SDGs.