2025-05-15-Jefferies-中国信贷增长-前景乐观_8页_172kb

Metals & Mining: China Credit Growth Analysis and Global Mining Valuation - May 15, 2025 Summary

China Credit Growth Overview

• Despite a noticeable acceleration in overall credit growth to +8.7% y/y (up from +8.2%, +8.0%, and +8.0% in previous months), it remains historically weak.
• The acceleration is primarily fueled by government bond issuance (+20.9% y/y), countering weak private credit (mortgages excluded).
• China's Manufacturing PMI dipped in April, indicating potentially stagnant or sluggish industrial activity.

Interpreting China Credit Growth

• Traditionally, China's strong credit growth (its current increasing momentum) serves as a leading indicator for Chinese demand for metals and the broader economy.
• The faster pace of credit growth (8.7%) suggests a modestly improving outlook for Chinese demand at the margin, better than previously anticipated, despite weak PMI data.
• The improving outlook is expected to be boosted by upcoming monetary easing (RRR cuts, policy rate reductions) and potential trade war resolution.

Global Demand Outlook

• While acknowledging a near-term "air pocket" in US demand, Jefferies suggests the medium-term outlook for the metals & mining sector is increasingly positive.

Global Mining and Steel Valuation Summary (Exhibit 1 - CY2024A-2026E Projections)

• Europe:
  • Anglo American (AAL LN): Buy; Target P/E 15.0x (2026E), EV/EBITDA 5.6x (2024A)
  • Antofagasta (ANTO LN): Hold; Target P/E 26.2x (2024A), EV/EBITDA 8.9x (2024A)
  • BHP Ltd (BHP LN): Hold; Target P/E 11.5x (2025E), EV/EBITDA 5.2x (2025E)
  • Glencore (GLEN LN): Buy; Target P/E 11.7x (2025E), EV/EBITDA 5.6x (2026E)
  • Rio Tinto Plc (RIO LN): Buy; Target P/E 8.7x (2026E), EV/EBITDA 4.7x (2026E)
• Americas:
  • Alcoa (AA US): Buy; Target P/E 9.4x (2024E), EV/EBITDA 5.8x (2025E)
  • BHP Ltd (BHP US): Hold; Similar targets to LN.
  • First Quantum (FM CN): Buy; N/M valuation metrics.
  • Freeport-McMoRan (FCX US): Buy; Target P/E 15.8x (2026E), EV/EBITDA 7.3x (2026E)
  • Rio Tinto Plc (RIO US): Buy; Similar targets to LN.
  • Teck Resources (TECK.B CN): Buy; Target P/E 15.7x (2026E), EV/EBITDA 4.9x (2026E)
• Asia Pacific:
  • BHP Ltd (BHP AU): Hold; Similar targets to US counterpart.
  • Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU): Buy; Target P/E 10.8x (2026E), EV/EBITDA 5.8x (2026E)
• Coal Miners & Steel Producers:
  • Peabody Energy (BTU US): Buy; Target P/E 7.4x (2025E), EV/EBITDA 2.6x (2025E)
  • Nucor Corp. (NUE US): Hold; Target P/E 15.3x (2024E), EV/EBITDA 5.7x (2024E)
  • Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF US): Buy; Target P/E 12.9x (2024E), EV/EBITDA 10.7x (2024E)