战略与国际研究中心-Assessing-Implementation-of-the-2010-Nuclear-Posture-Review_25页_706kb

2010 Nuclear Posture Review Implementation Summary

Core Content

The 2010 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) was a key policy document outlining the Obama administration's nuclear weapons strategy, which aimed to balance nuclear disarmament and deterrence. The NPR set five key objectives: preventing nuclear proliferation and terrorism, reducing the role of nuclear weapons in national security strategy, maintaining strategic deterrence and stability at lower force levels, strengthening regional deterrence and reassuring allies, and sustaining a safe, secure, and effective nuclear arsenal. This document assesses the administration's progress in implementing these objectives as of June 2011.

Main Objectives and Implementation Status

Objective One: Prevent nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism

Key Policies and Progress:

• Reduce the role of nuclear weapons in deterrence:
  The administration reduced the size and role of the nuclear arsenal through the ratification of New START and negative security assurances. However, nuclear weapons still play a role in deterring non-nuclear attacks.

• Secure fissile material:
  The U.S. hosted the 2010 Nuclear Security Summit, which resulted in a global commitment to secure vulnerable nuclear materials. The Global Threat Reduction Initiative (GTRI) secured HEU from several countries, including Kazakhstan, Chile, Ukraine, Poland, and Belarus.

• Strengthen export controls and international cooperation:
  The administration reviewed U.S. export control policies and promoted 123 Agreements. However, progress on a formal framework for nuclear energy cooperation through the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) has been limited.

• Support the IAEA and nuclear security initiatives:
  The U.S. has increased financial support for the IAEA, including the Next Generation Safeguards Initiative (NGSI), which has developed new technologies and trained experts. The U.S. also supports the 1540 Trust Fund and the International Nuclear Material Protection and Cooperation Program (INMP&C).

• Enhance nuclear forensics and detection capabilities:
  The administration increased funding for nuclear forensics and detection programs, such as the National Technical Nuclear Forensics program and the Domestic Nuclear Detection Office. However, the National Research Council noted that these capabilities are currently fragile and under-resourced.

Objective Two: Reduce the role of U.S. nuclear weapons in U.S. national security strategy

Key Policies and Progress:

• Comply with Article VI of the NPT:
  The administration committed to reducing the nuclear arsenal in line with Article VI of the NPT through New START and future reductions.

• Strengthen conventional capabilities:
  The U.S. is developing conventional prompt global strike (CPGS) and missile defense systems to reduce reliance on nuclear weapons for deterrence.

• Clarify nuclear use policy:
  The NPR established declaratory policies stating that the U.S. will not use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear states compliant with the NPT and will only consider their use in extreme circumstances.

Objective Three: Maintain strategic deterrence and stability at lower nuclear force levels

Key Policies and Progress:

• Maintain the nuclear triad:
  The U.S. will maintain the triad (ICBMs, bombers, and submarines) during the ten-year duration of New START.

• Reduce and modernize nuclear delivery systems:
  The administration has committed to modernizing the nuclear delivery systems, including the development of an Ohio-class SSBN replacement and the life extension of the B-61 bomb.

• Improve transparency and security assurances:
  The U.S. plans to reduce the number of non-strategic nuclear weapons and improve transparency with Russia in future negotiations. The administration has also retained forward-deployed nuclear weapons on tactical platforms to ensure regional deterrence.

• Strengthen command and control systems:
  Efforts are underway to improve the U.S. command and control system to maximize presidential decision time in a nuclear crisis.

Key Successes

• New START ratification:
  The U.S. ratified the New START treaty, leading to reductions in nuclear arsenal and improved transparency.

• Increased funding for nonproliferation programs:
  The FY 2011 budget increased funding for NNSA nonproliferation programs to $2.7 billion, a 25% increase.

• GTRI and INMP&C achievements:
  The GTRI successfully secured HEU from several countries, and the INMP&C has engaged in cooperative efforts to secure Russian nuclear sites.

• Support for IAEA and international cooperation:
  The U.S. has contributed significantly to the IAEA fuel bank and the 1540 Trust Fund, supporting global nuclear security.

Ongoing Challenges

• Budget constraints:
  The FY 2011 Continuing Resolution reduced funding for nonproliferation programs, threatening long-term commitments.

• Difficulties in arms control negotiations:
  Future U.S.-Russia arms control talks face asymmetric demands and political challenges, with New START demonstrating the difficulty of even modest reductions.

• Non-compliance by North Korea and Iran:
  Both countries have not demonstrated a commitment to denuclearization, despite international pressure and sanctions.

• Slow progress on the Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty (FMCT):
  The FMCT remains stalled, with no agreement on negotiation mechanisms and Pakistan's objection delaying progress.

• Limited progress on nuclear energy cooperation:
  The Global Nuclear Energy Partnership has not yet established a formal framework for international nuclear energy cooperation, despite efforts to promote it.

Conclusion

The Obama administration has made tangible progress in some areas of the NPR, particularly in reducing the nuclear arsenal, enhancing nuclear security, and promoting international cooperation. However, significant challenges remain in achieving full disarmament, maintaining strategic stability, and advancing arms control initiatives. The administration's efforts are ongoing and require sustained political will and financial commitment to realize the vision of a world without nuclear weapons.