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2018 Nuclear Posture Review Summary

Core Content

The 2018 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) was presented by John C. Rood, Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, at a CSIS event on March 1, 2018. The review outlines the U.S. nuclear policy and posture in response to evolving security challenges posed by nuclear-armed states such as Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran.

Main Points

1. Current Nuclear Threats

• Russia: Has increased nuclear capabilities and conducted military exercises targeting NATO and the U.S., with a focus on limited nuclear strikes.
• China: Lacks transparency in its nuclear modernization efforts, leading to U.S. and international concerns about its future intentions.
• North Korea: Has escalated nuclear and missile development since 2011, making explicit threats against the U.S. and its allies.
• Iran: Continues nuclear ambitions and ballistic missile development, violating U.N. resolutions and posing regional security risks.

2. U.S. Nuclear Posture

• The U.S. has not developed new nuclear weapons or delivery systems in the past two decades, except for the F-35 fighter.
• The U.S. has maintained its nuclear deterrent through life-extension programs for existing systems.
• The U.S. has not increased its nuclear arsenal, reducing it by 85% over recent decades.

3. Key Recommendations of the 2018 NPR

• Clarification of Deterrence Policy: The U.S. will use nuclear weapons only in response to extreme circumstances threatening its vital interests, including a "significant" strategic attack (nuclear or non-nuclear).
• Low-Yield Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs): A modification to existing SLBMs to include a low-yield option, enhancing deterrence against limited nuclear strikes.
• Nuclear Sea-Launched Cruise Missiles (SLCMs): A recommendation to study the deployment of nuclear SLCMs, which would provide greater flexibility in deterrence without matching Russian non-strategic nuclear capabilities.

4. Strategic Rationale

• The recommendations aim to tailor deterrence to the current security environment, ensuring that potential adversaries do not perceive nuclear weapons as a viable tool for coercion.
• These capabilities are treaty-compliant, particularly with the INF Treaty, and do not increase the overall size of the U.S. nuclear arsenal.
• The NPR emphasizes the continuity of U.S. nuclear policy, maintaining bipartisan support for the triad and modernization efforts.

Key Information

• NPR Objectives: To clarify and prioritize U.S. nuclear posture, enhance deterrence, and reassure allies.
• Deterrence Strategy: The U.S. seeks to raise the nuclear threshold by making its deterrent more credible and flexible.
• U.S. vs. Adversaries: Unlike Russia, China, and North Korea, which have increased nuclear capabilities and engaged in coercive behavior, the U.S. has not participated in an arms race and remains committed to arms control and disarmament.
• Legal and Ethical Considerations: While the NPR does not explicitly reference Article 6 of the Non-Proliferation Treaty or compliance with international humanitarian law, it aligns with the broader goals of nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation.

Conclusion

The 2018 NPR is a strategic response to a more complex and competitive global nuclear landscape. It emphasizes deterrence, alliance assurance, and policy continuity, while introducing new capabilities to address emerging threats. The review underscores the importance of maintaining a credible, flexible, and resilient nuclear posture without increasing the number of nuclear weapons, and it reflects a broader U.S. commitment to global security and stability.