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2018 Nuclear Posture Review Panel Discussion Summary

Core Content

The 2018 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) was the focus of a panel discussion hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) on March 1, 2018. The event featured experts from the Atlantic Council, International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), and The Diplomat, who provided insights into the implications of the NPR for Europe and Asia, particularly in relation to Russia and North Korea.

Main Points and Key Information

European Perspective

• Allied Reactions: The NPR was generally well-received by European allies, with the Japanese foreign minister expressing appreciation for its clear commitment to deterrence. However, there were few public statements from European officials, and some, like the German foreign minister, expressed negative views.
• Extended Deterrence: The review emphasized the importance of extended deterrence, outlining specific actions to enhance it, such as the development of the B-21 bomber, the Long Range Standoff cruise missile, and the introduction of a new sea-launched cruise missile (SLCM).
• NATO Cooperation: The NPR included measures to improve the readiness and survivability of NATO’s dual-capable aircraft and highlighted the need for continued consultation with allies.
• Public Sentiment: European publics have strong anti-nuclear sentiments, and the NPR’s language on deterrence was seen as a way to reassure them. However, the administration's rhetoric, especially from the White House, has raised concerns.
• Russian Reaction: Russia criticized the NPR for its confrontational tone, particularly regarding its stance on the INF Treaty and nuclear capabilities. However, the panelists noted that Russia's own actions, such as violating the INF Treaty and meddling in U.S. elections, have contributed to the current security environment.
• Military Interdependence: The U.S. relies heavily on allied infrastructure, such as early warning radars in Norway and the Netherlands, and missile defense systems in Japan, to support its strategic defense.

Asia and North Korea Perspective

• North Korean Nuclear Threat: The NPR recognized the urgent threat posed by North Korea, which has demonstrated the capability to strike the U.S. homeland with nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), such as the Hwasong-15.
• Guam as a Target: North Korea has shown interest in targeting Guam, a key U.S. military base in the Pacific, as part of its strategy to deter U.S. military presence on the Korean Peninsula.
• Alliance Deterrence: The review affirmed the U.S. commitment to using nuclear weapons to defend allies in the region, which is a critical component of U.S. deterrence strategy against North Korea.
• Low-Yield Nuclear Options: The development of low-yield nuclear weapons, such as the SLCM, was seen as a strategic tool to deter Russia, but it also raises concerns about potential miscalculations and escalation risks with North Korea.
• China's Role: The NPR mentioned China 47 times, highlighting its growing nuclear capabilities and the potential for its no-first-use policy to be a façade. The review also acknowledged the importance of missile defense in countering China's strategic ambitions.
• Escalation Risks: There is concern that the NPR’s language on "extreme circumstances" could be misinterpreted by North Korea, potentially leading to a miscalculation and a dangerous escalation spiral.
• North Korean Strategy: North Korea has an explicit first-use strategy to deter U.S. military action, particularly against its leadership. The regime is seen as unlikely to use nuclear weapons without a perceived existential threat, which raises concerns about the effectiveness of U.S. deterrence messaging.

Key Takeaways

• The 2018 NPR was designed to reassure allies and address emerging nuclear threats.
• It emphasizes extended deterrence and the importance of maintaining strong alliances.
• The review’s language and policies have implications for both Russia and North Korea, with the latter being a more immediate concern.
• There is a risk of miscalculation and escalation due to the ambiguity in the NPR’s deterrence policy.
• The U.S. must balance its nuclear strategy with the need to manage public sentiment and maintain trust with allies.

Conclusion

The panel discussion highlighted the complex implications of the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review, both in terms of its strategic messaging and the potential risks it poses to international stability. While the NPR was seen as a positive step in reinforcing extended deterrence, the language and policies it introduced require careful management to avoid unintended consequences, especially in regions where nuclear tensions are high.