2012年-世界发展银行全球_Bangladesh_-_Towards_Accelerated_Inclusive_and_Sustainable_Growth___Opportunities_and_Challenges_Volume_1_Overview_94页_20mb

Summary of Bangladesh: Towards Accelerated, Inclusive and Sustainable Growth—Opportunities and Challenges

Core Content

This report by the World Bank outlines the pathway for Bangladesh to achieve accelerated, inclusive, and sustainable growth by 2021, with the aim of transitioning into a middle-income country. It analyzes the country's current economic situation, identifies key challenges, and proposes strategies to overcome them.

Main Objectives

• To accelerate growth to absorb the large and growing working-age population.
• To make growth inclusive by ensuring equitable access to opportunities and services.
• To ensure sustainability in the face of climate change and unplanned urbanization.

Key Challenges

• Weak infrastructure: Land, power, port, and transportation facilities are overburdened.
• Low investment rate: Needs to increase to at least 33% of GDP to support growth.
• Skills shortages: Hinders productivity and competitiveness.
• Limited FDI in manufacturing: Bangladesh struggles to attract foreign direct investment in the manufacturing sector.
• High unemployment and underemployment: Especially among youth and educated youth.
• Climate change impacts: Affects both ex-ante and ex-post growth performance.
• Unplanned urbanization: Leads to congestion, pollution, and inefficiencies in urban centers.
• Need for policy and institutional reforms: To support productivity and sustainable growth.

Key Strategies for Growth

• Boost exports: Focus on manufacturing-based exports and diversify products, skills, and markets.
• Enhance remittances: Leverage migrant labor to increase household income and consumption.
• Improve human capital: Invest in health, education, and skills to support long-term growth.
• Address climate change: Implement mitigation and adaptation strategies to protect growth from climate shocks.
• Manage urbanization: Create orderly urban development to balance scale and density with livability and sustainability.
• Strengthen governance: Improve economic governance and business environment to attract investment and support growth.

Economic Indicators and Trends

• Growth rates: Recent rates of 5-6% are insufficient for reaching middle-income status by 2021.
• Poverty reduction: Poverty has decreased by 26.4 percentage points over the past two decades, but vulnerability remains high.
• Migration and remittances: Remittances have grown to 10.5% of GDP in fiscal 2011, contributing to household income, consumption, and savings.
• Investment requirements: To reach the target growth rate, investment-to-GDP ratio needs to rise to 33%.
• Labor force: Bangladesh has a high consumption-to-GDP ratio (over 80%) and low investment-to-GDP ratio (24.7%).

Key Findings

• Human development indicators have improved significantly, contributing to poverty reduction and economic growth.
• Growth is pro-poor in terms of reducing absolute poverty, but inequality remains high.
• Climate change poses a major threat to growth, with potential reductions of 2-6 percentage points over the next decade.
• Migration is a key driver of economic growth and development, especially in the short to medium term.
• Urbanization can be a double-edged sword, offering growth opportunities but also risks if not managed properly.
• Policy reforms are essential to create an enabling environment for growth, investment, and job creation.

Conclusion

Bangladesh has made significant economic progress since independence in 1971, but to become a middle-income country by 2021, it must accelerate growth, make it inclusive, and ensure sustainability. This requires improving infrastructure, attracting FDI, enhancing human capital, managing climate risks, and reforming urban development. The report emphasizes that concentrated efforts across multiple sectors and policy areas are necessary to achieve these goals.

Appendices and References

• The report includes Appendices A, B, and C that provide detailed data, stakeholder lists, and references.
• Tables and figures are included to support the analysis, such as:
  • Table 1: Required growth rate to achieve middle-income status by 2021.
  • Table 6: Cumulative growth of macroeconomic indicators under different climate scenarios.
  • Figure 1: Bangladesh growth trends.
  • Figure 12: Summary of adaptive occupational choice due to climate risks.

Disclaimer

• The findings and conclusions are those of the World Bank and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors or the governments they represent.
• The data used in the report may not be accurate or complete.
• The boundaries and denominations shown on maps do not imply judgment on the legal status of any territory.

Acknowledgements

• The report was prepared by Zahid Hussain and Lalita Moorty (Task Team Leaders) and a core team of economists and analysts.
• Support was received from various organizations, including the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, NGOs, and international bodies.
• Funding was provided by JOTAP (funded by DFID).

Acronyms and Abbreviations

Government Fiscal Year

• July 1 – June 30

Currency and Exchange Rate

• Bangladeshi Taka (Tk) = US$1 = Tk 81.8 (April 2012)