2012年-世界发展银行全球_Bangladesh_-_Towards_Accelerated_Inclusive_and_Sustainable_Growth___Opportunities_and_Challenges_Volume_2_Main_Report_237页_4mb

Bangladesh: Towards Accelerated, Inclusive and Sustainable Growth—Opportunities and Challenges Summary

Core Content

This report, prepared by the World Bank, analyzes Bangladesh's economic growth, labor migration, inclusiveness, and the impact of climate change on growth. It also provides an urban perspective on the country's path to achieving middle-income status by 2021.

Main Report Structure

Chapter 1: Economic Growth in Bangladesh: Achievements, Prospects and Challenges

• Summary: Bangladesh's GNI per capita tripled between the 1980s and 2011, from $251 to $784. Despite this, the country remains a low-income nation with over 50 million people in poverty.
• Overall Growth Trends and Patterns:
  • Bangladesh has maintained positive and accelerating growth for over three decades.
  • Per capita GNI growth has averaged 4.9% since the 1980s.
  • GDP growth increased from 3.7% in the 1980s to 5.8% in the 2000s.
  • Growth in GNI has increasingly relied on net factor income from abroad, especially from remittances.
• Sources of Growth:
  • Increased labor productivity, driven by capital deepening.
  • Contribution from GDP per working-age person.
• Bangladesh's Growth Enablers:
  • Demographic transition: Declining birth and death rates, leading to a growing working-age population.
  • Greater integration with the global economy: Exports-plus-imports-to-GDP ratio increased from 16% in the 1980s to over 40% in the 2010s.
  • Financial deepening: M2-to-GDP, private credit-to-GDP, and total deposits-to-GDP have risen significantly.
  • Macroeconomic stability: Inflation controlled, fiscal policy sound, and public savings increased from 0.9% to 2% of GDP.
  • Policy reforms: Transition from a state-controlled economy to a market-based system, with gradual deregulation and liberalization from the mid-1970s onwards.

Chapter 2: The Economics of Labor Migration and Remittances in Bangladesh

• Summary: Labor migration is a significant factor in Bangladesh's economic growth, with remittances playing a crucial role in boosting household income and contributing to GDP growth.
• Trends and Significance:
  • Migration has increased, with over 14% of the labor force working abroad.
  • Remittances have become a major source of income for many households.
• Determinants of Remittances:
  • Education level, migration costs, and remittance sources are key factors.
• Impact of Remittances at Household Level:
  • Direct and indirect contributions to household welfare and consumption.
• Remittance-Growth Nexus:
  • Remittances have had a positive impact on GDP growth, particularly through increased aggregate demand.
• Migration Outlook and Policy Agenda:
  • The report suggests the need for policies that support migrant workers and facilitate remittance inflows.

Chapter 3: Inclusiveness of Growth in Bangladesh

• Summary: The report evaluates whether growth in Bangladesh has been pro-poor and how it has been distributed across the population.
• Has Growth Been Pro-Poor?:
  • Growth has contributed to poverty reduction, but the benefits have not been evenly distributed.
• Distribution of Growth:
  • Growth incidence curves show that the poorest segments of the population have benefited more from growth.
• Economic Opportunities:
  • There has been a shift in the distribution of economic opportunities, with urban areas gaining more.
• Labor Market Dynamics and Challenges:
  • Labor market issues include skill mismatches, employment inefficiencies, and urban-rural disparities.
• Policy Implications:
  • Policies should focus on improving labor market efficiency and ensuring equitable distribution of growth benefits.

Chapter 4: How Does Climate Change Affect Growth?

• Summary: Climate change poses significant risks to Bangladesh's economic growth, particularly in the agricultural and manufacturing sectors.
• Ex-Post Impacts of Climate Change on Growth:
  • Historical economic damages due to climate events have increased as a share of GDP.
• Micro Study of Household Adaptation:
  • Households have adapted to climate risks through changes in occupational choices and migration patterns.

Chapter 5: The Path to Middle-Income Status from an Urban Perspective

• Summary: The report explores the role of urban areas in Bangladesh's growth and development, with a focus on improving urban competitiveness.
• Introduction:
  • Urbanization is a key driver of economic growth and development.
• Bangladesh's Urban Space:
  • Urban areas have distinct features that influence economic growth.
• City Competitiveness:
  • Factors such as infrastructure, accessibility, and policy environment affect city competitiveness.
• Dhaka City Corporation:
  • Dhaka is a major economic hub with high productivity and employment density.
• Dhaka Peri-Urban Areas:
  • These areas have seen some relocation of firms due to challenges in the city.
• Chittagong City Corporation:
  • Similar to Dhaka, Chittagong is an important urban center.
• Medium and Small Cities:
  • These cities have potential for growth but face challenges in terms of competitiveness.
• Strategic Directions:
  • Policies should focus on improving urban infrastructure, enhancing competitiveness, and promoting regional development.

Key Information

• Fiscal Year: July 1 – June 30.
• Currency: Bangladeshi Taka (Tk), with $1 = Tk81.8 in June 2012.
• Key Acronyms:
  • ACC: Anti-corruption Commission
  • IDA: International Development Agency
  • AGOA: African Growth and Opportunity Act
  • ILO: International Labour Organization
  • BBS: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics
  • EPZ: Export Processing Zone
  • GNI: Gross National Income
  • CPI: Consumer Price Index
  • TFP: Total Factor Productivity
  • WDI: World Development Indicators
  • HDI: Human Development Index
  • GSP: Generalized System of Preferences
  • RMG: Ready-Made Garment
  • ICT: Information and Communication Technology
  • P-SD: Protective Supplementary Duty
  • OI: Opportunity Index
  • MIC: Middle Income Country
  • LDC: Least-Developed Country
  • LMIC: Lower Middle Income Country
  • CPI: Consumer Price Index
  • GDP: Gross Domestic Product
  • FDI: Foreign Direct Investment
  • BTTB: Bangladesh Telegraph and Telephone Board
  • GATS: General Agreement on Trade in Services
  • IOM: International Organization for Migration
  • CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate
  • CPRC: Chronic Poverty Research Centre
  • CPRC: Chronic Poverty Research Centre
  • BCCRF: Bangladesh Climate Change Resilience Fund
  • CCTF: Climate Change Task Force
  • CPRC: Chronic Poverty Research Centre
  • GIC: Growth Incidence Curve
  • PSM: Propensity Score Matching
  • SSNP: Social Safety Net Program
  • SSC: Secondary School Certificate
  • HSC: High School Certificate
  • GED: General Economics Division
  • PREM: Poverty Reduction and Economic Management
  • SASEP: South Asia Sector Economics and Policy
  • PRMPR: Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Project
  • SASDU: South Asia Urban Development Unit
  • SASDA: South Asia Sustainable Development and Adaptation
  • CSABI: Center for Social and Behavioral Research
  • SASPM: South Asia Sustainable Poverty and Management
  • SACBD: South Asia Country Office for Bangladesh
  • UNU-WIDER: United Nations University - World Institute for Development Economics Research
  • Cities Alliance: An international partnership for sustainable urban development
  • AusAID: Australian Agency for International Development

Main Findings

• Bangladesh's economic growth has been impressive, but the country remains a low-income nation.
• Growth has been driven by increased labor productivity, particularly through capital deepening.
• Remittances have become a significant source of income and have positively impacted GDP growth.
• There are significant disparities in the distribution of growth benefits, with the poorest segments benefiting more.
• Climate change poses a major threat to economic growth, especially in the agricultural and manufacturing sectors.
• Urban areas, particularly Dhaka and Chittagong, are key to Bangladesh's economic development, but they face challenges such as infrastructure limitations and environmental risks.
• The country has the potential to achieve middle-income status by 2021, but this requires sustained growth and policy reforms.

Conclusion

The report highlights the importance of understanding the drivers of growth, the role of remittances, and the challenges of inclusiveness and climate change in Bangladesh's development. It also provides a detailed urban perspective on the country's path to middle-income status.