2009年-世界发展银行全球_Macedonia_-_Moving_to_Faster_and_More_Inclusive_Growth___A_Country_Economic_Memorandum_-_Overview_34页_2mb

FYR Macedonia: Moving to Faster and More Inclusive Growth

Core Content

This Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) outlines the structural reforms and policy options necessary for FYR Macedonia to achieve faster and more inclusive growth. The report emphasizes the importance of investment, export-led growth, and human capital development in reducing poverty and improving economic performance.

Main Points

1. Current Economic Context

• FYR Macedonia has experienced steady growth (averaging 4.7% from 2005–2008), outperforming its pre-2005 growth (2.2% for 1998–2004).
• The country became an EU candidate in 2005, which has been a key driver of reforms and stability.
• Despite these gains, poverty and unemployment remain high. The poverty rate stayed at around 19% between 2002 and 2006, and unemployment was 34% in 2008, the highest in Eastern Europe (excluding Kosovo).

2. Growth and Investment Response to Reforms

• Economic reforms initiated around 2002 have led to improved business environment, increased investment, and better growth outcomes.
• The real effective exchange rate (REER) and fiscal consolidation have been important in stabilizing the economy.
• Gross fixed capital formation increased from 16.6% to 18.2% of GDP between 2002 and 2006, with further expected growth.

3. Challenges Ahead

• Infrastructure constraints are a growing issue, with 22% of firms citing them in 2005. Export-intensive sectors, such as metals and garments, face particular challenges due to low productivity and high energy costs.
• Skill shortages in areas like IT and apparel limit growth potential. The export basket has low skill content, making it vulnerable to low-wage competition.
• The current account deficit has worsened, and FDI inflows have become more erratic, raising concerns about external financing sustainability.

4. Elements of a Virtuous Circle for Growth

• Improved investment climate can encourage private investment and FDI.
• Enhanced public infrastructure will support both growth and competitiveness.
• Human capital development is essential for increasing productivity and reducing poverty.
• Export diversification and efficiency improvements are needed to ensure demand for increased production.

Key Information

5. Structural Reforms and Indicators

• Political and economic stability has improved, with the implementation of the Ohrid Framework Agreement and EU candidate status.
• Financial sector reforms have led to declining lending rates and increased credit availability to the private sector.
• Telecommunications and air transport have seen significant cost reductions and increased competition, contributing to a better business environment.

6. Labor Market and Poverty

• Unemployment rates are among the highest in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region.
• Low-skilled employment dominates, contributing to the working poor (rising from 28.2% in 2002 to 37.6% in 2006).
• Education disparities by ethnicity and region affect labor market outcomes, with ethnic Macedonians having higher education completion rates than other groups.

7. Policy Recommendations

• Accelerate structural reforms to improve competitiveness and investment climate.
• Increase investment in infrastructure and human capital to support sustainable growth.
• Promote export growth with higher skill content and efficient import-substitution.
• Deepen the financial sector to boost domestic savings and corporate investment.
• Improve education outcomes, especially among non-Macedonian ethnic groups and youth, to support long-term productivity and inclusive growth.

8. Regional Comparisons

• FYR Macedonia's GDP growth is lower than that of Western Balkan countries and EU10 members.
• The country's Doing Business ranking improved from 96 in 2006 to 71 in 2008, reflecting progress in business environment and governance.
• The Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) improved from 105 to 72, indicating reduced corruption and increased transparency.

Conclusion

The report highlights that while FYR Macedonia has made significant strides in economic reforms and growth, there is still room for improvement. To achieve sustained and inclusive growth, the country must focus on investment in infrastructure, skill development, and export diversification. These efforts, combined with continued fiscal discipline and transparent financial systems, can help reduce poverty, improve employment, and increase GDP growth.