OECD-东南亚、中国与印度经济展望2018：用数字化促进增长（英文）-2018.10-242页-6mb

Summary of Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2018: Fostering Growth through Digitalisation

Core Content

The Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2018: Fostering Growth through Digitalisation is a biannual report published by the OECD Development Centre, focusing on the economic growth, development, and regional integration of Southeast Asia, China, and India. The report highlights the transformative impact of digitalisation on the region's economies and outlines the challenges and opportunities it presents for fostering inclusive and sustainable growth.

Main Findings

• Economic Growth: Emerging Asia, including Southeast Asia, China, and India, is expected to maintain a steady growth rate of around 6.3% per year from 2018 to 2022, assuming continued trade momentum and domestic reforms.
• China and ASEAN Growth: China's growth is expected to improve due to a strong trade rebound and resilient domestic consumption. ASEAN countries are also experiencing growth, driven by similar factors.
• India's Growth: India's growth is anticipated to slow slightly due to taxation and monetary reforms.
• Digital Economy Impact: Digitalisation is reshaping the manufacturing and services sectors by improving productivity, trade, and business operations. Emerging technologies and business models will continue to influence these trends.
• Challenges: Realising the potential of digitalisation requires reforms in trade and investment policies, development of supportive infrastructure, and addressing labor market challenges. Risks include rapid monetary policy normalisation in advanced economies, rising private-sector debt, and global trade restrictions.
• Regional Integration: ASEAN is working to enhance regional integration through trade liberalisation, reducing tariffs, and improving logistics and services trade. However, progress in services trade liberalisation has been slow.
• Policy Dialogue: The report serves as a strategic foresight and policy dialogue tool for the OECD's Southeast Asia Regional Programme (SEARP), providing insights into the region's economic development and policy needs.

Key Information

Economic Outlook and Trends

• Real GDP Growth: The report provides an overview of real GDP growth for ASEAN, China, and India, showing that growth in the region is projected to remain steady in 2017 and continue at an average of 6.3% per year from 2018 to 2022.
• Macroeconomic Indicators: The report includes data on private consumption, tax-to-GDP ratios, exports, and industrial production, highlighting the economic performance of key countries.
• Inflation and Monetary Policy: Headline inflation is diverging across Emerging Asian economies, and monetary accommodation may have bottomed out, indicating potential challenges in maintaining growth.
• FDI and Investment: Net FDI trends in Emerging Asia remain encouraging, with a focus on improving the investment climate and reducing restrictions.

Regional Integration

• ASEAN Economic Community (AEC): The AEC is progressing, with efforts to reduce tariffs and liberalise trade in goods and services. However, the liberalisation of services trade has been slow.
• Trade Agreements: The report discusses the progress of mutual recognition arrangements (MRAs) and the impact of trade facilitation agreements like the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement and TRIPS Agreement update.
• Logistics and Trade: Improvements in logistics performance are critical for regional integration, and the report includes indices and scores related to logistics performance and trade restrictiveness.

Digitalisation in Manufacturing and Services

• Digital Transformation: Digitalisation is transforming business operations, trade, and productivity across the region. The report highlights the role of new technologies and improved Internet access in this transformation.
• ICT Development: Internet use is increasing across the region, although disparities exist between countries. The report includes data on Internet users, broadband access, and the use of ICT in business.
• Policy Challenges: Governments face the challenge of adapting to the digital economy through supportive infrastructure, trade reforms, and addressing labor market issues.
• Impact on Growth: Digitalisation is expected to contribute significantly to economic growth in the medium to long term, with the potential to level the playing field for businesses in ASEAN.

Structural Policy Country Notes

• Country-Specific Analysis: The report provides detailed policy notes for each of the ASEAN member states, China, and India, focusing on economic performance, challenges, and policy responses.
• Key Themes: Topics include infrastructure investment, FDI inflows, education and skills development, and financial sector reforms.
• Examples: Country-specific data and examples are provided, such as Indonesia's tax amnesty programme, Malaysia's halal exports, and Vietnam's FDI trends.

Conclusion

The 2018 edition of the Economic Outlook underscores the importance of digitalisation in driving economic growth and development in Emerging Asia. It outlines the opportunities and challenges associated with the digital economy, emphasizing the need for coordinated policy efforts, infrastructure development, and inclusive growth strategies. The report also highlights the role of regional integration and cooperation in enhancing economic prospects and serves as a valuable resource for policy dialogue and strategic planning in the region.