OECD-东南亚、中国与印度经济展望2018：促进电子商务的机遇（英文）-2018.10-108页-3mb

Summary of "Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2018 - Update"

Core Content

This report provides an updated economic outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India, focusing on macroeconomic trends and the opportunities and challenges presented by the rapid growth of cross-border e-commerce in the region.

Main Topics

1. Regional Economic Outlook (2018-2019)

• Economic Growth: Emerging Asia (Southeast Asia, China and India) experienced robust real GDP growth in 2017, averaging 6.5%, slightly higher than 2016's 6.4%.
• Projected Growth: For 2018 and 2019, the region is expected to grow at 6.6% and 6.5%, respectively, driven by strong domestic consumption and investment.
• ASEAN-10 Growth: The average GDP growth rate for ASEAN-10 countries is projected at 5.3% for both 2018 and 2019, with the highest growth rates in the CLM countries (Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar), Vietnam and the Philippines.
• China and India: China's growth is expected to slow to 6.7% in 2018 and 6.4% in 2019, while India's growth is projected to rise to 7.4% and 7.5%, respectively.
• Key Drivers: Strong domestic demand, improvements in current account balances, and robust FDI inflows support growth. However, challenges such as rising interest rates in advanced economies, infrastructure implementation delays, and protectionist trends could affect economic performance.

2. Cross-Border E-Commerce in Emerging Asia

• Growth Prospects: Cross-border e-commerce is expanding rapidly in Emerging Asia, which is already a key player in global B2B and B2C e-commerce markets.
• Market Revenue: The region's B2C e-commerce market revenue is expected to grow from USD 320 billion in 2015 to over USD 900 billion by 2021.
• China's Dominance: China is projected to account for over 90% of this growth, increasing its global e-commerce share from ~30% in 2015 to nearly 40% in 2021.
• India and ASEAN: Together, India and ASEAN are expected to increase their combined weight in the global e-commerce market from 2.5% to 4%.
• Opportunities and Challenges:
  • Opportunities: Growth in ICT adoption, mobile Internet usage, and e-commerce user base.
  • Challenges: Inadequate transport and logistics systems, underdeveloped e-payment systems, and the need for regulatory harmonisation and consumer protection.

Key Information

• Policy Focus: Governments are encouraged to improve connectivity, enhance digital security, and support consumer protection to maximise the benefits of e-commerce growth.
• Regional Cooperation: Co-operation between regional and international actors is essential to address challenges in cross-border transactions and to promote fair competition.
• Infrastructure: Continued investment in infrastructure is critical to support economic growth, particularly in transport and ICT sectors.
• Monetary Policy: Central banks in the region have started raising policy rates, mainly due to inflationary pressures and currency weakness, but have also used reserve requirements to maintain liquidity.
• Fiscal Policy: Fiscal consolidation is ongoing in several large economies, with mixed policy directions across the region.

Structure and Collaboration

• The report is structured into two main parts: a regional economic monitor and a thematic focus on cross-border e-commerce.
• It was prepared in collaboration with regional partners, including UNESCAP and ERIA, and with the ASEAN Secretariat.
• The OECD Development Centre, along with its partners, aims to support Asian countries in promoting economic and social well-being through policy dialogue and analysis.

Acknowledgements

• The report was prepared by the Asia Desk of the OECD Development Centre, with contributions from UNESCAP and ERIA.
• It received valuable input from various officials and experts, including those from the OECD, ASEAN, and other international organisations.
• Financial support was provided by the governments of Japan, Korea, and Switzerland.

Conclusion

The 2018 Update highlights the importance of cross-border e-commerce in shaping the economic future of Emerging Asia. While the region continues to grow, it must address key challenges related to infrastructure, digital security, and regulatory frameworks to fully realise the potential of this sector. The report serves as a strategic foresight tool and a platform for policy dialogue among regional and international stakeholders.