2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Bosnia_and_Herzegovina_2015_Article_IV_Consultation_63页_1mb

Bosnia and Herzegovina: 2015 Article IV Consultation Summary

Core Content

The IMF Executive Board concluded the 2015 Article IV Consultation with Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) on October 23, 2015. The consultation focused on assessing the country's economic developments, policy discussions, and outlook, with an emphasis on recovery from the 2014 floods, structural reforms, and preparation for EU accession.

Main Views and Findings

• Economic Recovery: After a prolonged period of stagnation and recession, BiH showed signs of recovery in 2015. Growth rebounded to over 2%, up from just over 1% in 2014, driven by increasing industrial activity and exports, and declining fuel prices. Deflation was imported through the currency board arrangement.

• Macroeconomic Stability: Despite the floods and a difficult external environment, the budget and current account deficits were less severe than feared, and public debt remained manageable at 45% of GDP by end-2014.

• Structural Challenges: BiH still lags behind its regional peers in income convergence and employment levels, with per capita income at about a quarter of the EU average and unemployment at 28%, particularly among youth and long-term unemployed. The business environment remains poor, and labor market rigidities hinder job creation.

• Slow Reforms: Structural reforms have been delayed due to complex constitutional arrangements and resistance from vested interests, which have limited private investment and economic potential.

• Reform Agenda: The authorities adopted a comprehensive Reform Agenda in July 2015, in cooperation with the EU and International Financial Institutions (IFIs), aiming to accelerate reforms and move toward EU accession. This agenda includes measures to improve the business environment, enhance the labor market, and strengthen the rule of law.

• Fiscal Policy: The fiscal policy should balance debt reduction with supporting growth. Improving revenue collection and public expenditure efficiency is crucial to create room for infrastructure investment.

• Financial Sector: The banking system remains vulnerable, especially domestically-owned banks, and financial policies should focus on reviving bank lending and enhancing financial stability.

• External Risks: While external risks are more balanced, European stagnation, financial market strains, and geopolitical tensions could hinder growth, whereas a faster European recovery or resolution of trade issues could support exports.

• Political Risks: Domestic political instability and opposition to reforms pose significant challenges to the timely implementation of the Reform Agenda and external financing.

• Donor Support: BiH received donor assistance to address the 2014 floods, with IMF disbursements totaling 95.7 million Euros. However, disbursements were limited, and further support is needed.

Key Policies and Recommendations

• Accelerate structural reforms to improve the business environment, labor market, and public administration.
• Resuming fiscal consolidation to place public debt on a downward path, while supporting growth.
• Improve revenue collection and public expenditure efficiency.
• Address banking sector vulnerabilities and revive lending.
• Strengthen anti-corruption measures and comply with international standards.
• Finalize WTO accession and resolve trade issues.
• Enhance the legal framework for bankruptcy and dispute resolution.

Economic Indicators

Outlook and Risks

• Positive Outlook: Economic activity in Europe is increasing, which is expected to support growth in BiH.
• Major Risks:
  • Domestic: Political instability, resistance to reforms, and delays in implementation.
  • External: European stagnation, financial market strains, and geopolitical tensions.
• Opportunities: EU accession, external support, and reforms could accelerate growth and reduce unemployment.

Conclusion

The IMF Executive Board welcomed the reform agenda and progress in macroeconomic stability, but emphasized the need for stronger and sustained implementation of reforms to achieve more sustainable growth, lower unemployment, and closer alignment with EU standards. The complex political and institutional structure remains a major obstacle to reform and growth.