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报告摘要

EM STRATEGY | DAILY SUMMARY - 18 June 2018

Core Content

This document provides an overview of emerging market (EM) strategies and market outlook for the week of 18 June 2018. It includes insights from various EM regions, central bank policy expectations, and currency valuation assessments based on the CLEER™ model. The document is produced by BNP Paribas and is intended for professional clients and relevant market participants.

Key Market Insights

Asian Equity and FX Markets

Asian equity and FX markets are weaker this morning due to new trade tensions.
Positioning in Asian currencies has remained stable since the last update on 23 May.
Key Currencies:
- PHP (Philippines): Investors are most bearish on the PHP following its surge past 53.0 last week.
- KRW (South Korea): The biggest positioning changes were observed in the KRW.
Central banks in Thailand, Philippines, and Taiwan are expected to hold policy meetings this week.
Thailand: Likely to keep rates on hold despite a high Q1 GDP growth rate of 4.8%.
Philippines: May consider a 25bp rate hike due to inflation above the target range and potential influence from the Fed's rate hike.
Taiwan: Inflation remains below the acceptable range, so the central bank is expected to keep policy rates on hold.

EM Currency Valuation (CLEER™ Model)

The CLEER™ model suggests the following:
- Undervalued Currencies (end-2018 forwards): TRY (Turkish Lira), CZK (Czech Koruna), PLN (Polish Zloty), HUF (Hungarian Forint), and RUB (Russian Ruble).
- Overvalued Currency: ZAR (South African Rand).
The model is used to estimate fair value based on cyclical economic fundamentals.

South Africa Mining Policy

The Department of Mineral Resources (DMR) revised the mining charter, increasing black ownership from 26% to 30%.
The new charter removes the 1% annual turnover tax, which was seen as a burden on the industry.
The policy change is viewed as a positive step toward stability and investment in the sector.
However, the "free carry" requirement and 1% EBITDA target remain hurdles.
The rand is expected to remain undervalued versus its fair value, based on positive political developments and portfolio reallocation effects.

Central Bank Policy Outlook

Central Banks Expected to Hold Policy

Thai, Hungarian, Mexican, Brazilian, and Taiwanese central banks are expected to keep policy on hold.
Philippines: Risk of a 25bp rate hike due to inflation above target range and potential Fed influence.

Central Bank Meetings

Hungary (MNB): Policy rate is expected to remain at 0.9%, with focus on inflation report and updated forecasts.
Brazil (BCB): Likely to keep policy on hold at record lows, despite BRL depreciation.
India (RBI): Will release June meeting minutes on 20 June, following a 25bp rate hike in June.
Malaysia: Publishes May inflation data on 20 June.
Singapore: Releases May non-oil domestic exports (NODX) on 18 June.
China, Hong Kong, and Indonesia: Markets are closed on Monday and Tuesday.

Strategy Recommendations

Currency Strategy

USDZAR: Expected to remain undervalued.
PHP: Bearish positioning persists, with potential for further weakness.

Fixed Income Strategy

Brazilian DI Curve: The belly and long end are overpriced, but there are opportunities in the curve.
- Current recommendations: Fra Jan20sJan21s and Fra Jan22sJan23s.
Mexico: Expect a rate hike on Thursday, likely the last of the tightening cycle. Strategy: 1y1y TIIE due to high premium.

Contacts

Strategist	Job Title	Legal Entity	Phone
Wike Groenenberg	Head of Emerging Markets Research	BNP Paribas London branch	44 20 7595 8746
Sai Ulluri	FX & IR CEEMEA Strategist	BNP Paribas London branch	44 20 7595 1872
Erkin Isik, CFA	FX & IR CEEMEA Strategist	Turk Ekonomi Bank A.S. (Istanbul)	90 216 635 2987
Mirza Baig	Head of FX & IR Asia Strategy	BNP Paribas Singapore Branch	65 6210 3262
Gabriel Gersztein	Head FX & IR Latam Strategy	Banco BNP Paribas Brasil S.A.	55 11 3841 3421

Legal Notice

This document is non-independent research and constitutes a marketing communication.
It is not intended for retail investors and may contain "Research" as defined under MiFID II unbundling rules.
BNPP may have financial interests in the issuers or securities discussed, and conflicts of interest may exist.
The document does not constitute an offer to sell or issue any financial instruments.
No assurance is given that any transaction will be entered into on the terms indicated.
The information is subject to change and is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete.
This document may include back-tested performance data and is not indicative of future results.
It is intended solely for discussion and may be discontinued at any time.

United States Disclosures

Options: Complex instruments not suitable for every investor, and may only be appropriate for sophisticated investors.
ETFs: May involve tracking error, currency, and geopolitical risks. BNPP may have conflicts of interest.
Convertibles and Unregistered Securities: May be "restricted securities" under Rule 144A and are only available to QIBs or non-US persons.
Distribution Restrictions: The report may only be distributed to certain institutional investors under specific rules.

Online Resources

BNP Paribas Global Markets Website: www.globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com
BNP Paribas Strategy Website: [BNP Paribas Strategy Website](BNP Paribas Strategy Website)

Disclaimer

BNPP disclaims any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the information provided.
This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Transactions based on this document may involve significant risk, including market, counterparty, and liquidity risk.

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