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EM STRATEGY | DAILY Summary

Core Content Overview

This document is a daily market update from BNP Paribas, focusing on Emerging Markets (EM) strategies and key economic indicators across various regions, including CEEMEA, South Africa, Asia, and Latin America. It provides insights on central bank activities, inflation data, GDP growth, and market outlooks, while also including important legal and compliance disclosures.

Key Economic Highlights

Hungary

• MNB IRS Tender: The Hungarian Central Bank (MNB) is conducting an IRS tender today.
• Annual Plan: The MNB has confirmed it will proceed with its annual HUF 1.2trn IRS issuance plan.
• Swap Rate Volatility: Following the first IRS tender, swap rate volatility has been subdued.
• Long-Term Rates: Long-term rates in Hungary have been gradually increasing.
• Currency Impact: If rate increases lead to a stronger HUF, the MNB may increase supply in future tenders, flattening the yield curve and potentially stabilizing EURHUF.

South Africa

• Trade Deficit: The trade account recorded a large deficit of ZAR 27.7bn in January, compared to a revised surplus of ZAR 15.3bn.
• One-Off Factors: Much of the decline in the trade account is attributed to one-off events.
• Parliamentary Motion: The South African Parliament approved a motion to amend constitutional guarantees for land expropriation, which may raise concerns among investors and landowners regarding property rights.
• Economic Outlook: Solid global growth, supportive commodity prices, and a resilient ZAR suggest that South Africa's terms of trade will remain healthy, and external account imbalances are likely to stay contained.
• Calendar Events: SARB Governor Kganyago will speak on Bloomberg TV today.

India

• GDP Growth: India's Q4 2017 GDP growth accelerated to 7.2% y/y, the fastest pace in over a year.
• Growth Drivers: Investment, which surged by 12% y/y, was the main growth driver.
• RBI Policy Outlook: The report suggests the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may be more confident to raise rates twice in H2 2018, each by 25bp.

Asia

• China PMI: Caixin PMI for China came in slightly higher than expected at 51.6, indicating resilience in export-driven sectors.
• Official PMI vs. Caixin: The discrepancy between official and Caixin PMI figures highlights the slowing domestic economy.
• Indonesian Inflation: Indonesian inflation was weaker than expected at 3.18%, but expectations for BI rate hikes are still present as USD/IDR approaches 14,000 and the Fed continues to raise rates.
• Market Closures: Markets in Korea and Thailand are closed today.

Latin America

• Brazil GDP: Real GDP growth for Brazil is expected to be positive on a quarterly basis (+0.3% q/q s.a), reinforcing the idea of a recovery path.
• Annual Growth Forecast: For 2018, the forecast is for annual GDP growth of 3.0%, up from 1.1% in 2017.

Important Calendar Events

• Hungary: MNB IRS tender
• South Africa: February manufacturing PMIs to be released
• Brazil: Real GDP growth to be announced

Strategy Contacts

Legal and Compliance Information

• Non-Independent Research: This document is non-independent research and constitutes a marketing communication.
• Conflict of Interest: It may contain conflicts of interest due to interactions with sales and trading.
• Disclaimer: The document is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as authoritative. It does not constitute investment advice and does not form part of any offer to sell or issue.
• Confidentiality: The information is provided on a strictly confidential basis and may not be copied, reproduced, or distributed without prior written consent.
• Regulatory Compliance: It complies with relevant regulations in the UK, France, Germany, and the U.S., and is intended for professional clients and eligible counterparties.

Online Resources

• BNP Paribas Global Markets Website: www.globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com
• BNP Paribas Strategy Website: www.bnpparibas.com

Bloomberg Research Codes

• Fixed Income Research: BPFR
• G10 Interest Rate Research: BPBS
• Emerging Markets Research: BPFR
• Market Economics: BPEC

Important Disclosures

• Options and ETFs: These are complex instruments with high risk and are not suitable for all investors.
• Restricted Securities: Certain securities may not be registered under U.S. securities laws and are only available to Qualified Institutional Buyers or non-U.S. persons.
• No Investment Advice: The document does not provide investment, tax, legal, or financial advice.
• No Guarantee of Accuracy: The information and opinions are based on public sources and may not be independently verified.
• Performance Data: Simulated performance data is for illustrative purposes only and does not guarantee future results.

US Disclosures

• BNPPSC: BNPP Securities Corp is a U.S. broker-dealer and futures commission merchant registered with the SEC, CFTC, FINRA, and NFA.
• Distribution Restrictions: The document may be distributed only to institutional investors and not to retail investors.
• Confidentiality and Compliance: BNPP and its affiliates may have conflicts of interest and are not obligated to disclose confidential information.