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报告摘要

EM STRATEGY | DAILY SUMMARY - 20 June 2018

Core Content

This document provides an overview of emerging markets (EM) strategy and market insights for the morning of 20 June 2018, focusing on Asia, CEEMEA, and Latin America. It includes market analysis, central bank policy expectations, and trading strategies based on the latest data and indicators.

Key Market Developments

Asia

Equity and FX Markets: Asian equity and FX markets have regained strength after yesterday's sell-off.
Activity Spikes: Increased activity in low-yielding currencies such as CNH, TWD, KRW, and SGD, driven by breakouts of key levels (KRW @1,100, TWD @30, SGD @1.35).
Stop Loss Triggers: These spikes are likely triggering stop losses, indicating market volatility.
USDSGD Hedge: Given the backdrop of escalating trade tensions and a hawkish Fed, the document suggests buying USDSGD as a hedge.
Thai Policy: The Bank of Thailand kept policy rates on hold, with one dissenter calling for a hike. The central bank upgraded its 2018 GDP growth to 4.4% and 2019 to 4.2%.
FX Swaps and Interest Rate Swaps: THB 1m and 3m FX swaps and 2y interest rate swaps remained stable after the policy decision.

Philippines

Rate Hike Expectations: Market expectations point to a 25bp rate hike today.
Governor Comments: Governor Espenilla's comments suggested a readiness to adjust rates further, indicating a hawkish stance.

China

Economic Deceleration: The document highlights China's decelerating growth and potential policy decisions due to recent weak data.
Consensus View: Economists agree that growth will face more downward pressure, and financial risks have increased.
Policy Response: The government is expected to use fiscal policy to stimulate investments and consumption.

CEEMEA Insights

South Africa

CPI Expectations: The South African CPI is expected to decelerate slightly from 4.5% y/y in April to 4.4% in May.
Monetary Policy Outlook: The slight deceleration may provide clarity on the future direction of monetary policy.
SARB Comments: The SARB suggested that rates may need to be raised to combat inflationary pressures from FX depreciation.
USDZAR Spot: USDZAR spot is currently around 13.7, similar to levels before President Ramaphosa's election.

Hungary

MNB Policy Tone: The MNB turned to a mildly less dovish tone at its MPC meeting, removing the reference to maintaining loose monetary policy for an extended period.
Inflation Target: The inflation target remains the primary objective.
CPI Forecast: Headline CPI is expected to drift slightly above the 3% target due to higher oil prices.
Policy Synchronization: The MNB may synchronize policy moves with the ECB to prevent further market volatility.

Latin America Outlook

Brazil

Rate Hike Expectations: The central bank of Brazil (BCB) is expected to keep rates on hold at a record low.
Reasons for Halt: Below-target inflation and a soft recovery in growth are likely to prompt the BCB to remain on hold for a long time.
FX Depreciation: Despite the BRL's recent depreciation, the central bank does not see enough risk to inflation targets to change its strategy.
CDS Strategy: The CDS model is triggering a formal sell protection strategy in Brazil.
- Action: Sell Brazil 5y CDS at 283bp (11AM NYT).
- Target: 230bp.
- Stop Loss: 320bp.
- Carry: +5.4bp per month.
- Notional: USD 25mn.

Strategy Contacts

Strategist	Job Title	Legal Entity	Phone
Wike Groenenberg	Head of Emerging Markets Research, CEEMEA & APAC	BNP Paribas London branch	44 20 7595 8746
Marcelo Carvalho	Head of Emerging Markets Research, Latam	Banco BNP Paribas Brasil S.A. (Sao Paulo)	55 11 3841 3418
Sai Ulluri	FX & IR CEEMEA Strategist	BNP Paribas London branch	44 20 7595 1872
Erkin Isik, CFA	FX & IR CEEMEA Strategist	Turk Ekonomi Bank A.S. (Istanbul)	90 216 635 2987
Mirza Baig	Head of FX & IR Asia Strategy	BNP Paribas Singapore Branch	65 6210 3262
Dawn Kwa	Graduate	BNP Paribas Singapore Branch	65 6210 3263
Altaz Daga	AU/NZ IR Strategist	BNP Paribas Singapore Branch	65 6210 4994
Kun Shan	China Strategist	BNP Paribas China Limited (Shanghai)	86 21 2896 2773
Tianhe Ji	China Strategist	BNP Paribas China Limited (Beijing)	86 10 6535 0836
Gabriel Gersztein	Head FX & IR Latam Strategy	Banco BNP Paribas Brasil S.A. (Sao Paulo)	55 11 3841 3421
Samuel Castro	FX & IR Latam Strategist	Banco BNP Paribas Brasil S.A. (Sao Paulo)	55 11 3841 3492
Gustavo Mendonca	FX & IR Latam Strategist	Banco BNP Paribas Brasil S.A. (Sao Paulo)	55 11 3841 3445

Legal and Regulatory Information

Non-Independent Research: This document is non-independent research and may be subject to conflicts of interest.
Marketing Communication: It is a marketing communication under MiFID II and not investment research.
Confidentiality: The document is for the use of intended recipients only and may not be distributed without prior written consent.
Disclaimer: The information and opinions are based on public sources and are not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. No liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on this document.
Indicative Prices: Indicative prices are not actual transaction terms and are subject to change.

Online Resources

BNP Paribas Global Markets Website: www.globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com
BNP Paribas Strategy Website: [Not specified in the text]
Bloomberg Research Codes:
- Fixed Income Research: BPFR
- G10 Interest Rate Research: BPBS
- Emerging Markets Research: BPFR
- Market Economics: BPEC

US Disclosures

Options: Options are complex instruments and may not be suitable for all investors. Risk disclosure documents are required for access to related research.
ETFs: ETFs carry risks including tracking error, currency, and geopolitical risks. BNPP may have conflicts of interest due to market making or advisory roles.
Unregistered Securities: Certain securities may not be registered under US securities laws and are considered "restricted securities" under Rule 144A.
Distribution Restrictions: The report may be distributed only to specific institutional investors as defined by FINRA and SEC regulations.

UK and EU Disclosures

UK Communication: The document is communicated by BNP Paribas London Branch, authorized by ECB, ACPR, and PRA.
France Distribution: The report is produced and/or distributed in France by BNPP SA and BNPP Arbitrage.
Germany Distribution: Distributed in Germany by BNPP S.A. Niederlassung Deutschland, subject to limited regulation by BaFin.

Summary of Key Points

Asian equity and FX markets have stabilized after a sell-off.
Central banks in Brazil, Thailand, and the Philippines are holding policy meetings, with the Philippines expected to hike rates by 25bps.
The Bank of Thailand upgraded GDP and inflation forecasts, keeping rates on hold.
China's growth is slowing, with potential fiscal policy interventions.
South Africa's CPI is expected to decelerate slightly, providing clarity on monetary policy.
The MNB in Hungary is moving to a mildly less dovish stance, but no abrupt hawkish shift is expected.
Brazil's central bank is expected to keep rates on hold, despite BRL depreciation.
A sell protection strategy has been initiated in Brazil 5y CDS at 283bp with a target of 230bp.
The document is a marketing communication and not investment research.
Legal and regulatory disclaimers apply, including confidentiality and liability limitations.

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