20231030-招银国际-歌尔股份-002241.SZ-3Q23_weakness_in_line__Margin_recovery_on_track_into_4Q_FY24E_7页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary

Executive Summary

Goertek's 3Q23 financial performance showed revenue and net profit declines YoY, but strong QoQ growth due to Meta Quest 3 and new smartphone launches, with improved Gross Profit Margin (GPM). The company maintains a BUY recommendation with a revised target price of RMB19.22, driven by expectations of margin recovery and growth in VR/AR/gaming sectors. Key catalysts include ongoing margin improvements and product cycles in FY24/25E.

Q3 2023 Performance

Revenue declined 6% YoY to RMB103,278 million, but increased 37% QoQ.
Net profit fell 73% YoY to RMB1,464 million, rising 49% QoQ.
GPM improved to 10.2%, up 0.5 ppts QoQ, supported by better product mix and new product ramp-up.

Future Outlook for FY24/25E

Revenue is expected to grow steadily, with VR/AR and gaming segments becoming major drivers (+64% of sales in FY25E).
GPM recovery to 10.5% in FY25E, up from 8.4% in FY23E.
Target Price set at RMB19.22 (up 10.3% from RMB17.59), based on 25x FY24E P/E.
Long-term opportunities include AR/VR expansion and Watch share gains.

Investment Highlights

Acquisition of UPhoton to enhance optics portfolio and vertical integration in AR/VR/XR.
Share buyback plan (RMB500-700mn) signals confidence in future prospects.

Financial Position

Current P/E: 22.7x, P/B: 1.8x; target P/E adjusts earnings projections.
Revenue growth projected: 5% in FY24E, 7% in FY25E.
Strong positioning in TWS/XR/acoustics/gaming, with ROE increasing to 8.4% in FY25E.