20260323-招银国际-瑞声科技-02018.HK-FY25_in-line_auto_thermal_edge_AI_and_margin_recovery_to_drive_earnings_growth_in_2026-27E_7页_886kb

AAC Tech (2018 HK) Summary

Core Content Overview

AAC Tech has reported FY25 results that are in-line with estimates, driven by improved profitability in optics and strong growth in auto and thermal segments, despite a slight drag on gross margin due to acoustics product mix changes. The company is well-positioned to benefit from emerging AI opportunities, with a focus on edge AI, AR/VR glasses, AI servers, and robotics. The company has adjusted its estimates for FY25 and is providing positive guidance for FY26E, with a target price of HK$55.27 based on a SOTP valuation model.

Key Financial Highlights (FY25)

• Revenue: RMB 31.8bn (+16% YoY)
• Net Profit: RMB 2.51bn (+39.8% YoY)
• Gross Margin: 22.1% (slightly below consensus)
• Operating Margin: 8.1% (+0.5 ppt YoY)
• Net Margin: 7.9% (+1.3 ppt YoY)
• EPS (Reported): RMB 2.18 (+42% YoY)
• Consensus EPS: RMB 2.09 (+4% YoY)

2026E Outlook

AAC's management provided positive revenue guidance for FY26E, projecting a growth of 16-17% YoY with stable gross margin. The key growth drivers include:

• Acoustics: +5-10% YoY, improved GPM
• Optics: Flat plastic lens shipment with 5-10% ASP increase, module GPM of 4-5%
• PSS: +15-20% YoY, better GPM
• MEMS: +15-20% YoY, better GPM
• ED & PM: +30% YoY, better GPM
• Auto PSS: +15-20% YoY, better GPM

The company is expected to benefit from AI phone/glasses launches, AR optical waveguides ramp-up, and auto PSS order wins, which are seen as near-term catalysts.

Valuation and Target Price

• Target Price (HK$): HK$55.27 (based on SOTP model, 20.0x FY26E P/E)
• Previous Target Price: HK$60.55
• Current Price: HK$32.22
• P/E (2026E): 11.3x
• P/B (2026E): 1.2x
• Dividend Yield (2026E): 168.6%

The target price is based on a weighted average of P/E multiples across business segments, with the following assignments:

• Acoustics-Traditional: 20x P/E
• Acoustics-PSS: 20x P/E
• MEMS: 20x P/E
• ED & PM: 20x P/E
• Optics: 20x P/E

Revenue Breakdown (FY25)

• Acoustics: RMB 8,352 (26% of total)
• PSS: RMB 4,117 (13% of total)
• Sensor & Semi: RMB 1,571 (5% of total)
• ED & PM: RMB 11,774 (37% of total)
• Optics: RMB 5,725 (18% of total)
• Plastic Lens: RMB 1,688 (5% of total)
• HCM/WLG: RMB 4,038 (13% of total)
• Others: RMB 278 (1% of total)

Growth Drivers and Strategic Moves

• AI/Edge AI: Expected to be a long-term growth driver
• AR/VR Glasses: Significant growth opportunity in optical waveguides
• AI Server Thermal M&A: Potential for expansion in thermal solutions
• Auto PSS: Strong growth with a 53.7% stake in Hebei First Light
• Dispelix Acquisition: Expansion into AR waveguide technology
• Jyundei Acquisition: Entering AI server liquid cooling market

Shareholding and Market Data

• Market Cap: HK$38,599.6 million
• Avg 3 Mths Turnover: HK$166.6 million
• 52-Week High/Low: HK$52.25 / HK$32.22
• Total Issued Shares: 1,198.0 million

Shareholding Structure

• Wu Chunyuan: 21.9%
• Pan Zhengmin: 19.5%

Share Performance (12-Month)

• 1-Month: -12.7% (Absolute) / -8.8% (Relative)
• 3-Months: -14.8% (Absolute) / -13.4% (Relative)
• 6-Months: -28.2% (Absolute) / -24.6% (Relative)

Analyst Recommendations

• Rating: BUY (Maintain)
• Reasoning: Strong growth in non-handset segments, positive 2026E guidance, and a favorable SOTP-based target price

Financial Summary (Key Metrics)

Profitability Metrics

Analyst Certification

The analyst certifies that the views expressed in the report accurately reflect their personal views and that they have not traded in the stock within 30 days prior to the report and will not trade within 3 business days after the report is issued.

CMBIGM Ratings

• BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months
• HOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months
• SELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months
• NOT RATED: Stock is not rated by CMBIGM
• OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark
• MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark
• UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark

Important Disclosures

There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable for the purposes of all investors. CMBIGM does not provide individually tailored investment advice.