战略与国际研究中心-The-Changing-Situation-in-Iraq_107页_3mb

Summary of "The Changing Situation in Iraq: A Progress Report"

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of the political and security situation in Iraq as of April 2009, highlighting both positive developments and ongoing risks. It outlines the state of violence, public opinion, political dynamics, and economic challenges, while also addressing the influence of external actors such as Iran, Syria, and Turkey.

Main Trends and Developments

Security Situation

• Violence has declined significantly since its peak in 2007, reaching levels similar to those at the beginning of the insurgency in 2004.
• Most violence is now concentrated in Baghdad, Diyala, Ninewa, and Salah ad Din provinces.
• Polls show a marked decrease in violence and crime compared to 2007 and mid-2008.
• Despite the decline, serious violence continues, particularly through IEDs and suicide attacks.
• Al Qa'ida in Mesopotamia (AQM) and the Mahdi Army remain active, though their influence has diminished.
• US forces are still unpopular, with 85% of Sunnis and 40% of Shi'ites expressing distrust, though Kurds remain largely supportive.
• Security forces are improving, but not yet ready to fully take over from the US, with concerns over police and governance capacity.

Political Developments

• Provincial elections in January 2009 were generally seen as fair and credible, with Maliki's Dawa/State of Law emerging as the dominant force in the south.
• The Sadr Militia (Mahdi Army) has fragmented into at least five factions, reducing its influence.
• Coalitions are still unstable, and the provincial governments have not yet translated into national stability.
• Maliki's approval rating has risen, with 70% among Shi'ites and 33% among Sunnis, though Kurds show a drop from 68% to 51%.
• Sadrists remain a key political force in the south and around Baghdad, with potential for coalition-building and factional tensions.

Economic and Budget Challenges

• Iraq's budget has been significantly reduced, from an estimated $80 billion to $58 billion.
• Oil revenue has declined, affecting the government's ability to fund reconstruction and public services.
• Economic conditions are deteriorating, with high unemployment and corruption remaining major issues.
• US aid is phasing down, and the future of foreign investment is uncertain due to political and economic instability.

Regional and Ethnic Tensions

• Arab-Kurdish tensions are a major risk, with only 44% of Iraqis describing relations as good.
• Kurds have been increasingly vocal about their desire for autonomy or independence, especially in Kirkuk.
• Sunni-Shiite tensions persist, particularly in Ninewa, Diyala, Mosul, and Baghdad.
• Sunni perceptions of security remain low, with only 33% feeling safe compared to 67% of Shi'ites and 85% of Kurds.

External Influences

• Iran continues to influence Iraqi politics, particularly through support of militia groups and economic interests, but its popularity is low, with only 12% of Iraqis having a positive view.
• Syria has reduced support for AQM but still allows neo-Ba’athist and jihadist activity.
• Turkey is expanding its commercial presence in Kurdish areas but opposes Kurdish autonomy.
• Foreign competition for Iraqi oil is expected, with Iraqis viewing foreign firms as extensions of their governments and demanding caution to avoid exploitation.

Key Issues and Risks

• National elections are expected in late 2009 or early 2010, with prolonged political uncertainty anticipated.
• Budget shortfalls are likely to exacerbate instability, affecting security forces, infrastructure, and public services.
• Security force capacity is improving, but not yet sufficient to fully replace US forces.
• Kurdish-Arab tensions remain a major source of potential conflict, especially in Kirkuk and the northern regions.
• Sectarian and ethnic divisions persist, with Sunni and Shi'ite communities still distrustful of each other and the government.
• Political fragmentation and lack of clear leadership among Sunnis continue to pose challenges to national unity.

Conclusion

While the security situation has improved and public opinion shows positive trends, especially among Shi'ites and Kurds, significant risks remain. These include political instability, economic challenges, and ethnic tensions. The future of Iraq will depend heavily on the success of the national elections, political reconciliation, and economic recovery. The role of external actors like Iran and the US's strategic withdrawal will also be critical in shaping the country's trajectory.