2010年-世界发展银行全球_Africas_Pulse_October_2010___An_Analysis_of_Issues_Shaping_Africas_Economic_Future_20页_1mb

Africa's Pulse Summary

Core Content

This document, Africa's Pulse, provides an analysis of recent economic trends and prospects for Sub-Saharan Africa, as well as an overview of country policy and institutional assessment (CPIA) results and trends. It also discusses progress toward the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and the challenges that remain.

Main Economic Trends and Prospects

• Economic Recovery: Sub-Saharan Africa has shown strong resilience to the global economic crisis. Growth rebounded from 1.8% in 2009 to 4.9% in 2010 and is expected to remain around 5% in 2011 and 2012, though slightly below the pre-crisis trend.
• Global Context: The global economy is slowing, with projected growth of 3.5% in 2010 and 3.3% in 2011. Developing countries, including Sub-Saharan Africa, are expected to outperform high-income countries.
• Drivers of Recovery:
  • Commodity Prices: Energy and base metals prices have supported growth in resource-rich countries.
  • Fiscal Policies: Many countries implemented countercyclical fiscal policies, leading to increased fiscal deficits but also aiding economic recovery.
  • FDI and Remittances: Foreign direct investment (FDI) flows have been increasing, with notable investments in natural resources. Remittance flows remained stable despite the crisis.
• Regional Variations:
  • Growth Leaders: East and West Africa are leading the continent in growth.
  • Slower Growth: Central Africa, island economies, and Southern Africa are experiencing slower expansion.
• Economic Performance by Income Groups:
  • Low and lower middle income countries are growing faster than upper middle income countries.
  • Oil-exporting countries are outperforming non-oil economies, with an average growth rate of 7%.
• Challenges:
  • Global Risks: Weaker growth in major trading partners like the EU and disruptions in grain markets could pose risks.
  • Food Price Volatility: Despite some stabilization, food price shocks remain a concern, particularly for poor countries.
  • Domestic Factors: Weak governance, political instability, and weather conditions can affect economic prospects.

Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA)

• CPIA Overview: The CPIA evaluates the quality of a country's policies and institutions across four clusters: economic management, structural policies, social inclusion/equity, and public sector management/institutions.
• Performance Trends:
  • Improvement: More than twice as many countries improved their CPIA scores as those that declined.
  • Strong Performers: Countries like Rwanda, Mozambique, Cape Verde, Ghana, Tanzania, and Uganda have consistently improved their CPIA scores.
  • Weak Performers: Countries such as Zimbabwe, Eritrea, and Comoros have shown weak policy performance over the past five years.
• Oil vs. Non-Oil Countries:
  • Oil-exporting countries showed stronger gains in economic management and structural policies.
  • However, they experienced larger declines in social policies and public management clusters.
• Key Indicators:
  • Economic management and structural policies have shown the most improvement.
  • Governance and public sector management have lagged, with weak performance in these areas.
  • Better policies are correlated with higher GDP per capita and improved human development outcomes.

Progress Toward the MDGs

• Positive Progress:
  • Poverty Reduction: The extreme poverty rate has fallen from 59% in 1995 to 51% in 2005, with a decline of about 1 percentage point per year.
  • Education: Primary school enrollment has increased by 14 percentage points, reaching 73% in 2008. Completion rates have also improved.
  • Gender Parity: There has been progress in achieving gender parity in primary and secondary education.
  • Access to Safe Water: Access has increased from 49% in 1990 to over 59% in 2008.
• Health MDGs:
  • Progress has lagged, though under-5 mortality rates are falling and HIV/AIDS prevalence is stabilizing.
  • About 73% of infants are vaccinated against measles, and coverage of other vaccinations has expanded.
  • Over 3.9 million people are receiving antiretroviral treatments (ART).
• Challenges:
  • Fragile States: 19 countries, home to over one-fourth of the region’s population, are fragile or conflict-affected and have made slow progress.
  • MDG Gaps: Most African countries are not on track to meet the MDG targets, especially in health and education.
  • Global Support: Achieving the MDGs will require global support and continued economic growth.

Key Takeaways

• Sub-Saharan Africa has shown resilience and strong recovery post-crisis, driven by commodity prices, countercyclical fiscal policies, and FDI inflows.
• There is considerable variation in economic performance across countries and sub-regions.
• The CPIA scores indicate that better policies and institutions are associated with higher growth and improved human development outcomes.
• While progress has been made on some MDGs, particularly poverty reduction and education, the health goals remain a challenge.
• Fragile states and regions are lagging behind in achieving MDGs due to weak governance and low capacity.
• The global economic environment and domestic factors like political instability and food price volatility continue to pose risks to economic and development progress.