2011年-世界发展银行全球_Africas_Pulse_September_2011___An_Analysis_of_Issues_Shaping_Africas_Economic_Future_16页_2mb

Africa's Pulse Summary

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the economic trends and challenges facing Sub-Saharan Africa in the context of a slowing global economy and specific regional issues such as drought. It outlines the resilience of African economies amid global uncertainties and highlights the need for structural reforms to improve productivity, especially in the informal sector.

Main Points

• Economic Growth: African countries are experiencing solid economic growth, with Sub-Saharan Africa's GDP growth forecast to reach 4.8% in 2011 and 5.2% in 2012 and 2013, assuming no further global downturn.
• Global Economic Slowdown: The global economic recovery has slowed, with advanced economies facing high uncertainty and developing countries showing less marked declines. This poses downside risks to Africa's growth, particularly for those with high exposure to European markets.
• Drought Impact: The Horn of Africa is experiencing one of the worst droughts in over 50 years, severely affecting livelihoods and leading to a significant drop in agricultural output and GDP growth. The drought is expected to reduce GDP growth by up to 0.4 percentage points in the short term, with potential for more severe impacts if the situation persists.
• Informal Sector Employment: Most African workers are employed in the informal sector, which is characterized by low productivity and low earnings. Policymakers must focus on improving the productivity of these jobs to support sustainable economic development.
• Fiscal Space: African countries have less fiscal space now compared to 2008 due to expansionary fiscal policies adopted to counter the global financial crisis. This limits their ability to respond to new economic shocks.
• Commodity Prices and Inflation: The slowdown in the global economy has led to a drop in commodity prices, especially oil and metals, which negatively affects export revenues and fiscal revenues. Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa has risen significantly, with some countries experiencing over 30% annual increases in food prices.

Key Information

Global Economic Trends

• The global economy is facing a slowdown, with high-income countries' growth forecast at 1.6% in 2011 (down from 2.1% in June).
• Developing countries are expected to grow at 6.1% in 2011, a smaller decline compared to high-income economies.
• A European debt crisis and investor uncertainty have led to a drop in global GDP growth forecasts and increased risks of a severe downturn.

Africa's Economic Outlook

• Sub-Saharan Africa's GDP growth is expected to return to pre-crisis levels in 2012.
• Growth is projected to be slightly lower than the earlier forecast due to the global slowdown and drought.
• The impact of the global slowdown is most pronounced for countries heavily reliant on exports to Europe and those with limited economic diversification.
• Oil price declines are expected to affect growth in oil-dependent economies, such as Angola and the Republic of Congo, more severely than in Nigeria.

Drought Effects

• The drought in the Horn of Africa has affected over 13.3 million people, leading to a significant drop in agricultural production and GDP growth.
• In Kenya, the drought has led to a 28% drop in coffee production and a 16% decline in tea production.
• The drought has also reduced hydroelectric power generation, leading to power rationing and higher costs for firms and households.

Employment Challenges

• Africa's growth has not created enough productive jobs to absorb the 7-10 million youth entering the labor force annually.
• Most employment is in the informal sector, which includes household enterprises and non-farm self-employment.
• Despite some growth in the formal sector, the share of wage jobs remains low, especially in low-income countries.

Policy Considerations

• Policymakers need to focus on improving productivity in the informal sector and enhancing macroeconomic management.
• The informal sector is a major employment absorber and must be supported through better policies and regulatory environments.
• There is a need for greater diversification of economies and more investment in infrastructure, particularly in energy and transport, to reduce vulnerability to external shocks.

Figures and Data Highlights

• Figure 1: Weak growth in high-income countries.
• Figure 2: CPIA performance of non-fragile and fragile African countries.
• Figure 3: CPIA performance of non-fragile African countries.
• Figure 4: Coefficient of variation of CPIA scores.
• Figure 5: Investment in PPI projects in Sub-Saharan Africa by sector, 1990–2010.
• Figure 6: Median inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa.
• Figure 7: Annual inflation rates in selected countries.
• Figure 8: EMBIG stripped spreads on foreign denominated African bonds.
• Figure 9: Food prices remain high in Sub-Saharan Africa.
• Figure 10: Prices of key staples in Africa.
• Figure 11: Employment shares by sector, 2009.
• Figure 12: Change in employment shares per sector, 1999–2009.
• Figure 13: Distribution of primary employment by type.
• Figure 14: Employed and unemployed youth: share in the bottom 40% of income distribution.
• Figure 15: Employed youth and adults: share in the bottom 40% of income distribution.

These figures and data support the analysis of economic and employment trends, highlighting the challenges and opportunities for Sub-Saharan Africa in the context of global economic conditions and internal structural issues.