2010年-世界发展银行全球_Africas_Pulse_April_2010___An_Analysis_of_Trends_Shaping_Africas_Economic_Future_12页_1mb

Summary of "Africa's Pulse" (April 2010)

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of Africa's economic performance and development prospects following the global economic crisis. It highlights the resilience of African economies, the effectiveness of policy responses, and the challenges that still need to be addressed for sustained growth and development. The report also showcases successful development initiatives across the continent that offer hope for future progress.

Main Points

Economic Recovery

• Growth Decline: Africa's economic growth dropped by almost four percentage points in 2009 due to weak export demand, lower commodity prices, declining private capital flows, and reduced remittances.
• Rebound: Output is projected to expand by about 4.3 percent in 2010, showing a faster recovery than in previous crises.
• Pre-Crisis Levels: Growth is expected to remain below pre-crisis levels through 2011.
• Per Capita Income: Per capita income fell by nearly 1 percent in 2009 but is expected to recover.

Policy Response

• Fiscal Deficits: African countries experienced a 3 percent of GDP increase in fiscal deficits in 2009 as a response to the crisis.
• Prudent Policies: Policymakers maintained or increased social spending and supported capital investment in infrastructure.
• Examples: Ethiopia increased wages in public works programs, while the Republic of Congo and Rwanda increased capital spending to address infrastructure needs.

Risks to Economic Prospects

• Food Prices: Rising global food prices threaten food security and nutrition, with some African countries experiencing sharp increases in staple prices.
• Debt Sustainability: While debt ratios have increased, the risks of a broad-based debt crisis remain low.
• Aid Shortfall: Official Development Assistance (ODA) has not met the Gleneagles Summit commitments, with Africa likely to receive less than half of the promised $25 billion.

Key Challenges

Infrastructure Deficit

• ICT Progress: Africa has made significant strides in Information and Communications Technology (ICT), with mobile phone subscribers increasing by 50 percent annually.
• Other Infrastructure: Progress in energy, water, and transport remains slow, with electricity and transport being major constraints for businesses.
• Cost: Annual infrastructure investment is estimated at $93 billion, with 40 percent needed for power alone.

Agricultural Productivity

• Growth Acceleration: Agricultural GDP growth has increased from 2.3 percent to nearly 4 percent over the past decade.
• Vulnerability: Less than 5 percent of cultivated land is irrigated, making African agriculture highly vulnerable to climate change.

Governance and Institutional Capacity

• Improvements: Some countries have improved governance and institutional quality, but overall scores on public sector management have not changed significantly.
• Variation: Oil-exporting countries generally score lower than non-oil-exporting countries.

Success Stories

Rwanda: Health Improvements

• Reforms: Rwanda implemented results-based financing for health workers, linking pay to performance.
• Outcomes: Under-five mortality decreased by over 30 percent, modern contraception nearly tripled, and use of insecticide-treated nets increased significantly.

Kenya: M-PESA

• Innovation: M-PESA, a mobile payment system, has reached 40% of Kenya's adult population.
• Impact: It facilitates $320 million in monthly person-to-person transfers and offers affordable financial services to the poor.
• Enabling Factors: Success was due to strong demand for remittances, poor financial services, liberal banking regulations, and Safaricom's market dominance.

Cape Verde: Tourism Growth

• GDP Growth: The country achieved an average annual GDP growth of 6.5 percent over the last decade.
• Tourism Role: Tourism has been a key driver, with tourist arrivals increasing from 67,000 in 1999 to over 285,000 in 2008.
• Economic Impact: Tourism receipts reached 25% of GDP in 2008, contributing to employment and economic diversification.

Mali: Mango Exports

• Export Growth: Mango exports increased six-fold between 1993 and 2008.
• Infrastructure and Partnerships: Mali overcame constraints through a multi-modal transportation system and partnerships with private operators to establish a cold chain system.
• Donor Support: Donor funding helped improve phytosanitary standards, certification, and training for agricultural workers.

Conclusion

Despite the challenges, Africa has shown resilience and made progress in economic recovery and development. The continent is well-positioned to benefit from a global recovery, provided that domestic policies remain sound and external support, particularly in the form of aid, is increased. The report emphasizes that with the right policies and investments, Africa can continue to grow and achieve its development goals.