20171013-法国巴黎银行-Latin_America_Weekly_Spotlight_9页_245kb

Latin America Weekly Summary (13 October 2017)

📌 Core Content Overview

This document provides a weekly economic update for Latin America, focusing on key events and economic indicators from Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Chile, and Argentina. It includes market outlooks, policy decisions, and upcoming data releases, with a special emphasis on the economic and political dynamics influencing the region.

📌 Key Events and Highlights

🇧🇷 Brazil

• Economic Outlook: Positive growth trend is expected to continue in 2018, with a forecast of 3.0% growth.
• GDP Data: A slightly positive monthly real GDP growth of 0.1% m/m for August is anticipated, following broad retail sales.
• Inflation: Mid-month inflation (IPCA-15) is expected to accelerate to 0.32% in October, up from 0.11% in September. Annual inflation is forecast to rise to 2.69%.
• Political Developments: Congress is likely to continue analyzing the prosecutorial request to investigate the president.

🇲🇽 Mexico

• NAFTA Talks: The fourth round of NAFTA negotiations is expected to conclude on Tuesday, with a focus on rules of origin and labor issues.
• Labour Market: Tight labour market is expected to persist, with subdued wage growth despite low unemployment.
• Elections: Political attention is shifting to the 2018 elections, with Margarita Zavala potentially becoming a top independent candidate.
• Unemployment Rate: Expected to remain flat at 3.5% (seasonally adjusted) for September.

🇨🇴 Colombia

• Trade Balance: Improved exports are expected due to higher oil prices and agricultural items, but a monthly deterioration is likely due to rising imports.
• Current Account Deficit: Reduced slightly to 3.7% in the second quarter.
• Consumer Confidence: Remains negative but has improved from Q2 lows, supporting retail sales performance.

🇨🇱 Chile

• Monetary Policy: The Central Bank of Chile (BCCh) is expected to keep interest rates unchanged despite a surprising drop in inflation.
• Inflation Outlook: Inflation is projected to remain close to the 3% target, with non-tradable price pressures likely to accelerate in 2018.
• Policy Rate: Expected to end 2017 at 2.50%, with tightening likely around mid-2018.

🇦🇷 Argentina

• Fiscal Outlook: A temporary fiscal improvement in August, with the primary deficit expected to widen to 4.2% of GDP by year-end.
• Current Account: Expected to continue widening in 2018 due to recovery in economic activity.
• Market Closure: Local markets will be closed on Monday for a holiday.
• Fiscal Deficit: Strong ARS (Argentine Peso) is expected due to the fiscal deficit, which may prevent current account improvement in the short term.

📌 Economic Calendar (13 Oct – 22 Oct)

📌 Main Points and Key Insights

• Brazil: Continued positive GDP growth and inflation acceleration expected. Political investigations may affect market sentiment.
• Mexico: NAFTA talks are critical, with a focus on labor and rules of origin. Tight labor market and subdued wage growth are key factors.
• Colombia: Trade balance and current account are under focus. Consumer confidence is improving but remains negative.
• Chile: BCCh is expected to maintain current rates, with non-tradable price pressures likely to rise in 2018.
• Argentina: Temporary fiscal improvement, but primary deficit is expected to return to target levels by year-end. Current account widening is a concern.

📌 Additional Information

• The report was produced by the Latam Market Economics team at BNP Paribas.
• It includes charts for Brazil's monthly GDP proxy and Colombia's exports breakdown.
• The document is a marketing communication and not investment research. It is subject to legal disclaimers regarding conflicts of interest, liability, and regulatory compliance across multiple jurisdictions.

📌 Legal and Regulatory Notice

• This document is non-independent research and may be subject to conflicts of interest.
• It is intended for professional clients and eligible counterparties as defined by MiFID and other regulations.
• It is not investment advice and does not constitute a prospectus.
• BNP Paribas may have financial interests in the mentioned issuers and may be involved in related transactions.

📌 Contact Information