ECB欧洲央行-Eurosystem-staff-macroeconomic-projections-for-the-euro-area-countries,-June-2019_1页_139kb
报告摘要
Eurosystem Staff Macroeconomic Projections Summary - June 2019
Core Content Overview
The Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area countries, as of June 2019, provide forecasts for real GDP growth, Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation, and unemployment rates for the years 2018 to 2021. The projections are based on the latest data available up to May 22, 2019, and technical assumptions up to May 15, 2019. These forecasts are adjusted for working days to ensure comparability across countries.
Real GDP Growth (Annual Percentage Changes)
| Country | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro area | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Belgium | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Germany | 1.5 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Estonia | 3.9 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| Ireland | 6.7 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 3.3 |
| Greece | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| Spain | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| France | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Italy | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Cyprus | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 3.2 |
| Latvia | 5.0 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 2.9 |
| Lithuania | 3.5 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| Luxembourg | 2.6 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 3.1 |
| Malta | 6.6 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 3.5 |
| The Netherlands | 2.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Austria | 2.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Portugal | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Slovenia | 4.5 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 2.9 |
| Slovakia | 4.1 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 2.8 |
| Finland | 2.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
- Euro area real GDP growth is projected to remain stable, with a slight decline in 2019 followed by a recovery in 2020 and 2021.
- Germany experiences a slowdown in 2019, with growth dropping to 0.6%, but rebounds slightly in subsequent years.
- Ireland and Malta show the highest growth rates in 2018, with both countries experiencing a decline in growth by 2021.
- Estonia, Latvia, Slovenia, and Slovakia have consistently high growth rates, with some decline in 2020 and 2021.
- Italy and Cyprus show relatively lower growth, with Italy experiencing a significant drop in 2019.
HICP Inflation (Annual Percentage Changes)
| Country | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro area | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Belgium | 2.3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Germany | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Estonia | 3.4 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 2.3 |
| Ireland | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Greece | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Spain | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| France | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Italy | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Cyprus | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Latvia | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| Lithuania | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
| Luxembourg | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Malta | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| The Netherlands | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| Austria | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Portugal | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Slovenia | 1.9 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Slovakia | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.3 |
| Finland | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
- Euro area inflation is projected to gradually increase, with a slight rise from 1.3% in 2019 to 1.6% in 2021.
- Estonia and Latvia show the highest inflation rates in 2018, with a decline in 2021.
- Germany and The Netherlands experience a slight increase in inflation in 2020 and 2021.
- Ireland and Greece have the lowest inflation rates, with Ireland showing a steady increase and Greece experiencing a slight rise.
Unemployment Rate (Percentage of Labour Force)
| Country | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro area | 8.2 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 7.3 |
| Belgium | 6.0 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.6 |
| Germany | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.1 |
| Estonia | 5.4 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 6.1 |
| Ireland | 5.7 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.4 |
| Greece | 19.3 | 17.8 | 16.4 | 15.2 |
| Spain | 15.2 | 13.9 | 13.0 | 12.1 |
| France | 9.1 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 8.1 |
| Italy | 10.6 | 10.5 | 10.6 | 10.4 |
| Cyprus | 8.4 | 6.9 | 6.0 | 5.6 |
| Latvia | 7.4 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 6.8 |
| Lithuania | 6.2 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.6 |
| Luxembourg | 5.5 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 4.9 |
| Malta | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.8 |
| The Netherlands | 3.8 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 |
| Austria | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 |
| Portugal | 7.0 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 5.3 |
| Slovenia | 5.1 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.0 |
| Slovakia | 6.5 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 6.1 |
| Finland | 7.4 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 6.3 |
- Euro area unemployment rate is expected to decline steadily from 8.2% in 2018 to 7.3% in 2021.
- Greece and Italy have the highest unemployment rates, with Greece showing a significant decline from 19.3% to 15.2%.
- Portugal and Spain also experience notable declines in unemployment, with Spain seeing the most significant drop from 15.2% to 12.1%.
- Malta maintains a low unemployment rate throughout the period, with a slight increase in 2021.
- Luxembourg, France, and Austria show consistent decreases in unemployment, with Luxembourg leading the way.
Key Insights
- The Euro area as a whole is expected to maintain moderate economic growth with a slight upward trend in inflation.
- Germany and The Netherlands show a more pronounced slowdown in 2019 but recover in subsequent years.
- Ireland and Malta experience high growth in 2018, which declines by 2021.
- Greece, Italy, and Spain face higher unemployment rates, but there is a general trend of improvement.
- Estonia, Latvia, Slovenia, and Slovakia have the highest GDP growth rates, indicating strong economic performance in these countries.
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