【国际商会国际仲裁院】ICC脉搏调查2025：企业对美国新关税的反应_10页_291kb

ICC Pulse Survey 2025: Business Reactions to New U.S. Tariffs

Executive Summary

The ICC Pulse Survey 2025, conducted from 3 to 11 April 2025, gathered insights from 448 businesses across 68 countries, highlighting widespread concern over the newly announced U.S. tariff measures. Key findings include:

• 60% of respondents viewed the U.S. tariff announcement negatively, citing rising costs, disrupted supply chains, and potential trade retaliation as primary concerns.
• Service-oriented sectors such as accommodation and food services showed unexpectedly high levels of concern, indicating indirect effects of the tariffs.
• Regional differences were observed, with East Asian businesses being the most affected, while those in the Middle East and North Africa reported less exposure.
• A significant risk perception gap exists between small and large businesses, with larger enterprises more concerned about trade retaliation and global supply chain disruptions.
• The private sector is calling for predictability, coordination, and mechanisms to de-escalate trade tensions to mitigate the broader impacts on global trade and markets.

Noteworthy Findings

• Accommodation and food services sector is significantly impacted, with over half of respondents reporting a negative outlook. This reflects downstream effects on tourism and imported goods.
• Tariff impact is uniform across business sizes, but large enterprises are more likely to report concerns about costs and supply chain disruptions.
• East Asia businesses are most affected, with 50% of respondents in the region considering the impact significantly negative.
• Middle East and North Africa businesses report a more neutral impact, with almost 30% indicating the effect would be neutral.
• Sub-Saharan Africa businesses remain the most uncertain, with nearly 30% stating it is too soon to tell.

Respondents Overview

• The survey received 448 responses from 68 countries, with the largest number from Türkiye (99), Germany (60), Italy (38), Tunisia (27), and South Africa (22).
• 59% of respondents are from Europe and Central Asia, 14% from Sub-Saharan Africa, and 9% from Middle East and North Africa.
• 40% of respondents are from the manufacturing sector, 10% from real estate, rental, and business activities, and 8% from retail and wholesale trade.
• SMEs make up 56% of respondents, while large enterprises account for 42%.

Impact of 2 April Tariff Announcement

• The new U.S. tariff measures, which include a baseline 10% tariff, have sparked immediate concern across all sectors and regions.
• 60% of respondents reported negative impacts, with 44% from the manufacturing sector and 10% from the transport sector.
• The accommodation and food services, retail and wholesale trade, and agriculture and fishing sectors are particularly vulnerable, with over 50% of respondents in these sectors expecting significantly negative impacts.

Biggest Concerns Related to the New Tariff Measures

• The top three concerns are:
  • Increased costs (64% of respondents)
  • Uncertainty affecting planning (47%)
  • Supply chain disruptions (45%)
• Large businesses are more concerned, with over 50% citing at least one of these concerns.
• Trade retaliation is also a major concern, with 50% of large businesses fearing retaliatory actions, compared to 25-35% of smaller businesses.

Outlook for the Next 6-12 Months

• 30% of respondents report a more pessimistic outlook.
• 40% are more cautious about the next 6-12 months.
• Accommodation and food services and retail and wholesale trade sectors are particularly pessimistic, indicating long-term challenges due to the tariff measures.

Conclusion

The survey underscores the significant and widespread impact of the new U.S. tariffs on global business operations, with a particular emphasis on supply chain disruptions, rising costs, and uncertainty. While the immediate effects are felt across all sectors and regions, large businesses are more acutely aware of the potential for trade retaliation and long-term economic risks. The private sector is urging for greater predictability and coordination to manage these challenges effectively.