国际商会国际仲裁院-ICC脉搏调查2025_企业对美国新关税的反应（英）_10页_236kb

ICC Pulse Survey 2025: Business Reactions to New U.S. Tariffs

Executive Summary

The ICC Pulse Survey 2025, conducted from 3 to 11 April 2025, assessed global business reactions to new U.S. tariff measures announced on 2 April 2025. Key findings include:

• 60% of respondents viewed the new tariffs negatively, citing concerns over rising costs, disrupted supply chains, and potential trade retaliation.
• The accommodation and food services sector, typically not involved in cross-border goods trade, showed over 50% of respondents reporting a significantly negative outlook, indicating indirect or downstream effects of the tariffs.
• A growing sense of uncertainty was observed, with 30% of businesses reporting a more pessimistic outlook and 40% being more cautious about the next 6-12 months.
• There is a perception gap between small and large businesses, with large enterprises (50%) significantly more concerned about trade retaliation than smaller businesses (25-35%).
• The private sector emphasizes the need for predictability, coordination, and mechanisms to de-escalate trade tensions.

Noteworthy Findings

• Accommodation and food services sector is heavily impacted, despite not being directly involved in goods trade.
• East Asia businesses report the most significant negative impact, while Middle East and North Africa businesses feel less exposed.
• Sub-Saharan Africa businesses remain the most uncertain about the tariff's effects.
• The manufacturing, agriculture and fishing, and retail and wholesale trade sectors are the most vulnerable, with over 50% of respondents in these sectors anticipating significantly negative impacts.
• Large businesses are more likely to report concerns about rising costs, supply chain disruptions, and trade retaliation, suggesting a higher level of integration into global markets.

Respondent Information

• The survey received 448 responses from 68 countries, with the highest numbers from Türkiye (99), Germany (60), Italy (38), Tunisia (27), and South Africa (22).
• 59% of respondents are from Europe and Central Asia, 14% from Sub-Saharan Africa, and 9% from Middle East and North Africa.
• 40% of respondents are from the manufacturing sector, 10% from real estate, rental, and business activities, and 8% from retail and wholesale trade.
• SMEs account for 56% of respondents, while large enterprises represent 42% of the sample.

Impact of the 2 April Tariff Announcements

• The new U.S. tariffs were perceived as having a uniform impact across all business sizes.
• 60% of respondents reported a negative impact on their business operations.
• Manufacturing (44%) and transport (10%) sectors were the most affected in terms of percentage of respondents.
• East Asia businesses reported the most negative impact, with 50% considering it significantly negative, while Middle East and North Africa businesses were less exposed, with 30% indicating a neutral impact.
• Sub-Saharan Africa businesses remain uncertain, with 30% stating it is too soon to tell.

Biggest Concerns Related to the New Tariff Measures

• The top concerns among businesses are:
  • Increased costs (64%)
  • Uncertainty affecting planning (47%)
  • Supply chain disruptions (45%)
• Large businesses are more concerned, with over 50% mentioning at least one of these concerns.
• Trade retaliation is also a major concern, with 40% of respondents worried about potential retaliatory actions from trade partners.
• Large businesses (50%) are more likely to express concerns about retaliation compared to smaller businesses (25-35%).

Outlook for the Next 6-12 Months

• 30% of respondents report a more pessimistic outlook.
• 40% of businesses are more cautious about the next 6-12 months.
• The accommodation and food services and retail and wholesale trade sectors are particularly pessimistic about the future.

Conclusion

The new U.S. tariff measures have triggered widespread concern among global businesses, with significant impacts on cost structures, supply chain operations, and trade planning. While the effects are perceived uniformly across company sizes, large businesses are more aware of and concerned about the broader implications, including trade retaliation. The survey highlights the urgent need for predictability and coordination in international trade policies to mitigate the risks and uncertainties posed by such measures.