2014年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Burkina_Faso_Selected_Issues_35页_665kb

Summary of Selected Issues on Burkina Faso (July 2014)

Core Content

Burkina Faso has experienced sustained economic growth from 1990 to 2013, outperforming regional standards. However, the growth has not been inclusive, as the population has not fully benefited from this economic expansion. The country's poverty incidence has remained around 45 percent, with urban poverty increasing and the poverty line rising significantly. Despite these challenges, some indicators suggest progress, such as a reduction in the poverty headcount ratio and improved wealth distribution.

Main Views

• Economic Growth: Burkina Faso's real GDP growth averaged 5.9 percent between 2000 and 2013, becoming more resilient and less volatile over time. The primary sector's share of GDP has declined, reducing its impact on overall economic activity.
• Sectoral Composition: The secondary sector's share of GDP has remained constant at about 20 percent, while the mining sector, particularly gold, has grown significantly, now accounting for 4.3 percent of GDP.
• Inclusiveness of Growth: While the country's GINI index has decreased, reflecting better wealth distribution, the benefits of growth have not reached the poorest segments of the population, especially the youth.
• Social Indicators: The population growth rate remains high at around 3 percent, with health indicators improving but education lagging behind regional averages. The Human Development Index (HDI) is below regional standards, highlighting ongoing challenges in social development.

Key Information

Economic Growth

• Real GDP growth averaged 5.9% between 2000 and 2013.
• The primary sector's share of GDP dropped from 33.7% in 1995 to 28.0% in 2013.
• The secondary sector's share remained around 20%.
• The mining sector's share increased from 0.5% in 1995 to 4.3% in 2013.
• The country is updating its base year to 2015 to better track informal sector activity.

Poverty and Inclusiveness

• Poverty incidence remained around 45% since 1994, with urban poverty increasing.
• The poverty line has more than tripled in value, now comparable to the World Development Indicators.
• The World Bank's poverty headcount ratio dropped from 71.17% in the early 1990s to 44.6% in 2009.
• The wealthiest 10% of the population saw a decline in income share, while the poorest 10% increased slightly, remaining under 3%.
• The GINI index decreased from 50.7 in 1990 to 39.8 in 2009, indicating better wealth distribution.

Social Indicators

• Population growth rate was 2.9% between 1990 and 2012, driven by declining mortality rates.
• Primary school enrollment has improved but remains below the 2015 target of 100%.
• Health and education spending is below regional averages, despite progress in health indicators.

Measures for Inclusive Growth

• The Strategy for Accelerated Growth and Durable Development (SCADD) aims to support broad-based growth and poverty reduction.
• Key measures include:
  • Resilience in Primary Sector: Investments in irrigation, GMO cotton seeds, and crop rotation have improved productivity and resilience.
  • Social Transfers: Targeted transfers for vulnerable groups, job creation in rural areas, and improved food security through subsidized grocery stores.
  • Infrastructure Development: Solar and thermal plants, and interconnections to improve energy and transport.
  • Education and Training: Expansion of university infrastructure, scholarships, and vocational training programs.
  • Growth Poles: Development of economic hubs, such as the one on the Bagré reservoir, to attract private investment.

Constraints to Inclusive Growth

• Electricity Supply: Unreliable and expensive.
• Infrastructure Gap: Significant in transport, energy, health, and education.
• Financial Access: Only 16% of the population had access to financial services in 2012.
• Unemployment and Underemployment: Particularly among the youth.
• Judicial System: Despite some improvements, systemic weaknesses and mixed results in anti-corruption efforts remain.

Cotton Sector Overview

Economic Importance

• Cotton supports a large share of the rural labor force and represents 18% of goods exports as of 2013.
• It plays a key role as a social safety net, with 15-20% of the labor force directly dependent on it.
• Despite its importance, the sector's share of GDP has declined from 3.5% to around 2.5% due to the rise of gold exports.

Structural Reforms

• Reforms such as "free-adhesion" allowed farmers to join production groups individually.
• The establishment of SOFITEX, the state-owned ginning company, and the introduction of private companies like Faso Coton and SOCOMA improved productivity and market coordination.
• Recent reforms include better training in irrigation and crop rotation, and the use of GMO cotton, which reduced insecticide use and increased yields.

Risks

• Short-term Risks: Weather, exchange rates, and international price volatility.
• Long-term Risks: Structural downward trends in cotton prices due to increased global supply and competition from synthetic fibers.
• Fiscal Risks: The Stabilization Fund and Inputs Fund have been established to support producers and stabilize incomes.

Conclusion

Burkina Faso has made progress in economic growth and some social indicators, but significant challenges remain in achieving inclusive growth. The country needs to address infrastructure gaps, improve access to financial services, and strengthen governance to ensure that the benefits of growth reach all segments of the population, especially the poor and youth. The cotton sector, while historically vital, faces long-term risks that require continued reform and investment to maintain its role in the economy.