20230817-招银国际-Fixed_Income_Daily_Market_Update_5页_785kb

报告摘要

Markets remained weak, with IG space widening by 0-2bps overall. Financials showed better selling in T2s and a curve down among selling flows; developers like CHIOLI and CHJMAO exhibited buying interest amid attempted risk trimming.
Mixed trading across regions; UST yields widened by 5-7bps, Asia ex-JP IG space saw wider spreads, while European AT1s were quoted lower.

GDP expected to improve mildly in the next quarters, reaching 5.1% in 2023 and 4.8% in 2024, supported by service recovery and policy easing.
Property market further deteriorated, with GFA sales starting dropping 65% year-over-month as investment declined and developers facing financing challenges.
Retail sales weakened due to consumer reluctance, though services showed resilience; key policy moves like MLF rate cuts indicate potential further monetary easing to boost credit supply.
Manufacturing output mixed, with green shoots in ferrous metal and auto sectors but overall manufacturing growth foundered due to sluggish demand and property issues.

Property sector collapse worsened, with defaults anticipated; entity like COGARD issued warnings on bond uncertainties due to liquidity and repayment concerns.
Top movers included Dalwan and Country Garden bonds, which saw surges, contrasting with underperformers like Ping Re.

IG space tightened in lending (LGFV) with better buying, but TMT bonds mixed; Chinese SOE HAO Hua curve down amid selling blocks.
Analyst views emphasized China's debt system risks and the need for aggressive policy intervention to counter economic deflation and stabilize sectors.

Report contains forward-looking statements subject to change; addresses conflicts of interest and distribution restrictions applicable to UK, US, and Singapore recipients.

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