2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Burundi_Ex_Post_Assessment_of_Longer_44页_1022kb

Burundi: Ex Post Assessment of Longer-Term Program Engagement

Core Content

This document is an Ex Post Assessment of Longer-Term Program Engagement for Burundi, prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff team in June 2011. It serves as background material for periodic consultations with the Burundian government and evaluates the performance of two IMF-supported programs: the 2004–08 Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) and the 2008–11 PRGF/Extended Credit Facility (ECF). The assessment highlights the challenges faced by Burundi in achieving macroeconomic stability and growth, as well as the role of the IMF in supporting the country through these programs.

Key Issues

• Post-conflict recovery: Burundi has started to recover economically since the Arusha Accord in 2000, but growth remains constrained by weak institutions, poor infrastructure, and limited capital and skills.
• Economic structure: The economy is heavily dependent on agriculture, particularly coffee and tea, making it vulnerable to terms-of-trade and weather-related shocks.
• Fragility and dependency: Despite some progress, Burundi's persistent fragility and reliance on foreign aid have hindered long-term growth and policy sustainability.
• IMF role: The IMF's engagement has been crucial in providing stability-oriented macroeconomic policies, catalyzing aid flows, and supporting structural reforms through technical assistance (TA).
• Need for future engagement: A new Fund program is expected to help Burundi address ongoing challenges, including maintaining donor confidence, improving policy predictability, and building institutional capacity.

Main Views and Findings

Macroeconomic Performance

• Stability improvements: Burundi has made progress toward macroeconomic stability, particularly in monetary and fiscal policy.
• Growth and inflation: GDP per capita has bottomed out, with trend growth returning to pre-conflict levels. Inflation remains high and volatile, driven by food and energy price fluctuations.
• External position: The current account deteriorated initially but improved with increased coffee exports and debt relief. However, external debt remains high, with the present value of total external debt still above 100% of exports.
• Public finances: Despite aid surges, public deficits remained significant, averaging 4.7% of GDP. Wage consumption and military spending increased substantially, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability.

Structural Reforms and Program Design

• Coffee sector reform: A major focus of the programs, with some progress made in transferring coffee ownership to farmers and beginning privatization of coffee washing stations. However, monopolistic market structures remain, and reforms were slow and incomplete.
• PFM improvements: The establishment of the Office Burundais des Recettes (OBR) and other reforms improved transparency and accountability in public financial management. However, revenue mobilization was slow, and revenue shortfalls persisted.
• Monetary policy: The central bank gained more autonomy, and the monetary policy framework was modernized. However, liquidity management and exchange rate policy were constrained by limited capacity and the de facto shadowing of the US dollar.

Challenges and Lessons

• Political and institutional constraints: Weak governance, limited capacities, and fractious post-conflict politics impeded reform progress and policy implementation.
• Aid dependency: The volatility of aid flows made it difficult to maintain consistent fiscal policies and created vulnerability to external shocks.
• Need for flexibility: The Fund's engagement required flexibility to accommodate the country's fragile political environment and persistent economic weaknesses.
• Lessons for future engagement: The IMF should continue to support Burundi by boosting policy credibility, building capacities, and coordinating with donors to ensure effective and sustainable reform.

Key Information

Program Outcomes

• First PRGF (2004–08): Focused on securing macroeconomic stability, donor confidence, and encouraging structural reforms, particularly in the coffee sector.
• Second PRGF/ECF (2008–11): Continued the focus on PFM reforms, monetary policy modernization, and debt sustainability. It also aimed to stimulate growth through aid absorption and policy predictability.
• Aid absorption: The surge in aid helped stimulate domestic demand and stabilize the economy, but the public sector remained vulnerable to aid fluctuations.

Future Strategy

• Growth strategy: Burundi needs a growth strategy based on structural reforms that address key bottlenecks and ensure stability-oriented macroeconomic policies.
• Exchange rate flexibility: Greater exchange rate flexibility is needed to better absorb terms-of-trade shocks.
• Fiscal buffers: The need to save part of growth dividends to build fiscal buffers and restore debt sustainability is emphasized.
• Technical assistance: A new Fund program would help build capacities, boost policy credibility, and preserve donor confidence.

Conclusion

The IMF's longer-term engagement in Burundi has been instrumental in promoting macroeconomic stability, catalyzing aid flows, and supporting structural reforms. However, the country's persistent fragility, weak institutions, and limited capacities have constrained progress. A new Fund program is expected to be requested by the end of 2011, with the goal of addressing these challenges and ensuring sustainable growth. The success of future engagement will depend on continued flexibility, effective coordination with donors, and stronger institutional capacity.