普华永道-2019年欧洲房地产趋势报告（英文）-2018.11-92页-11mb

报告摘要

Summary of Emerging Trends in Real Estate® Europe 2019

Core Content

The Emerging Trends in Real Estate® Europe 2019 report highlights the evolving landscape of the European real estate industry, emphasizing the increasing importance of sustainability, income stability, and geopolitical risks. The report is published by PwC and the Urban Land Institute, and it reflects the insights of industry professionals and investors across Europe.

Main Points

Late Cycle Market Dynamics

The European real estate market is in a late cycle, with many investors expecting a prolonged period of high valuations and limited growth in capital appreciation.
The core assets are at record prices, making it difficult to achieve sustainable cash-flows.
The industry is shifting focus from capital growth to income stability and growth, with many investors prioritizing rental returns over price appreciation.

Emphasis on Sustainability and Social Impact

There is a growing recognition of the environmental and social impact of real estate investments.
Investors are increasingly considering ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) factors in their decision-making.
The industry is moving towards alternative real estate sectors such as student housing, hotels, and flexible offices, which are seen as more sustainable and aligned with long-term demographic changes.

Interest Rates and Financial Risk

The European Central Bank (ECB) has ended its quantitative easing program, leading to interest rate increases expected in 2019.
While modest rate increases are anticipated, they are not seen as a major threat to the industry.
Leverage remains a concern, but most believe that if kept at a moderate level, the risk will be borne by equity providers rather than debt providers.

Political and Geopolitical Risks

Brexit is a significant concern for the industry, with many expecting a negative impact on the UK market.
The UK is seen as a riskier investment destination compared to the Eurozone.
Global political instability and trade wars are also major concerns, with the US-China trade tensions affecting European markets through tariffs and supply chain disruptions.

Investment Strategies

Build-to-core and develop-to-core strategies are gaining popularity to ensure income stability.
Residential and alternative real estate are becoming more attractive due to the difficulty in acquiring core assets.
There is a shift in investment focus from traditional sectors like office and retail to alternative and residential sectors.

Market Outlook

The overall market remains stable and liquid, despite the late cycle.
Construction costs and labor shortages are becoming significant risks for developers.
Asia is expected to increase its investment in European real estate, particularly from Japan.
Return expectations are gradually declining, with many investors targeting lower returns but still considering real estate a stronger asset class than alternatives.

Key Trends

Shift to sustainable income: The industry is moving away from capital growth and focusing on rental stability.
Rise of alternative real estate: Student housing, hotels, and flexible offices are becoming more prominent.
Brexit impact: The UK is expected to underperform the Eurozone in terms of investment and economic growth.
Interest rate sensitivity: While interest rates are expected to rise, they are not seen as a major threat.
Operational risk management: The industry is becoming more operationally focused, with a greater emphasis on risk assessment and income generation.

Conclusion

The European real estate industry in 2019 is characterized by a late cycle, increased focus on sustainability, and a shift in investment strategy towards income generation and alternative sectors. Despite geopolitical and economic uncertainties, the market remains liquid and attractive, with Germany and Lisbon leading in investment opportunities. The UK, however, faces a challenging future due to Brexit uncertainty, and the Eurozone is seen as a safer investment destination. Overall, the industry is adapting to new challenges and is looking beyond traditional models to ensure long-term stability and growth.