世界银行-历史阴影下的气候变化谈判（英）-2025.6_21页_657kb

Climate Change Negotiations under the Shadow of History

This paper examines the impact of historical responsibility on climate change mitigation negotiations between high- and low-income countries. Using a laboratory experiment, the study compares two conditions: one where historical emissions are not mentioned, and another ("shadow of history") where past contributions to climate change are explicitly linked to current risks.

Key findings include:

• Overall cooperation (contributions to a mitigation fund) remains statistically insignificant despite a nominal increase when history is revealed.
• The distribution of contributions shifts significantly:
  • Low-income countries reduce their contributions considerably when historical responsibility is made explicit.
  • High-income countries increase their contributions, offsetting the decrease from low-income countries.
• This redistribution improves the welfare of low-income countries while reducing it for high-income countries, implying that historical arguments can be a useful tool for developing nations.
• Textual analysis of negotiations under the "shadow of history" condition reveals heightened tension, adversarial conversations, and a shift in focus towards country types, with more negative sentiment expressed during talks.

The study suggests that referencing historical responsibility does not hinder overall collective action but can strategically redistribute burdens and benefits among nations, albeit contributing to adversarial dynamics.