2025-01-19-世界银行-作物_冲突和气候变化（英）_71页_1mb

Summary of "Crops, Conflict and Climate Change"

This study examines the welfare impacts of agricultural shocks caused by conflict (Russia-Ukraine war) and climate change in 51 developing countries using a heterogeneous household model that accounts for consumption choices, land, and labor allocation. Key findings include:

1. War Impact: Agriculture trade restrictions from the war reduced household real incomes by an average of -2.90% across countries, with highly heterogeneous effects. Poorer households and countries reliant on imports from Ukraine/Russia suffered the largest losses (-10.94% in Azerbaijan), driven by higher food prices (consumption channel). The model's predictions of price changes correlated strongly with real data.

2. Climate Change Impact: Productivity shocks from climate change reduced average real incomes by -11.99%, with significant heterogeneity both across and within countries. Unlike the war, the primary driver was impacts on land and labor incomes, and the poorest 25% lost -14.63%, exacerbating inequality.

3. Key Mechanisms: Both shocks disproportionately harm poor households due to higher food expenditure shares and adjustment limitations. Trade and factor reallocation partially mitigate impacts but do not fully offset losses, particularly for the poor.

4. Model Contribution: The discrete-choice general equilibrium model with household heterogeneity provides granular, income-percentile-specific insights, revealing biases in aggregate models that average out heterogeneous impacts.