2004-07-20-皮尤-Democratic_Party_Image_Improvement_47页_142kb

Key Findings Summary

1. Democratic Party Image and Public Confidence

   • The Democratic Party's image has improved, particularly on domestic issues and its perception as being more concerned with ordinary people.
   • Democratic voters are more unified and optimistic about the election, with a majority expecting John Kerry to win.
   • Overall, President Bush’s job approval rating remains below 50%, while the economy and Iraq remain the top concerns for voters, with the public slightly less focused on the economy than in the previous year.

2. Issue-Based Advantages

   • The Democratic Party leads the Republicans on domestic issues such as health care, education, and the environment.
   • On foreign policy and terrorism, the Republicans retain a small edge, but the gap is narrowing.
   • Fewer voters cite the economy as the top problem compared to last year, while concerns about Iraq and terrorism have shifted.

3. Election Dynamics

   • In “battleground” states, Kerry holds a small lead, though presidential polls show a tight race with little significant change.
   • Democrats are more confident in Kerry’s victory, while undecided voters express more uncertainty.
   • Republican voters are more satisfied with national conditions than Democrats, and public enthusiasm for the Democratic Party has grown compared to the rise in satisfaction with the Republican Party.

4. Iraq War and Policy Preferences

   • Public opinion on the Iraq War remains divided, with Kerry voters more likely to oppose the war, while Bush voters support it.
   • Most of the public views the war is not helping or hurting the broader war on terrorism, and opinions vary by partisanship.
   • Democrats’ policies may appeal to some Republicans, especially on health care reform.

Overall, the report indicates that while Democrats and Kerry have made gains in voter support and issue perception, the race remains closely contested with key divisions on foreign policy and the outcome of the Iraq War.