20231214-招银国际-Credit_growth_continues_to_rebound_into_2024_8页_686kb

China's economy is analyzed in this report from CMB International Global Markets, dated December 14, 2023, focusing on social financing and GDP growth.

In November 2023, social financing recovered to RMB2.45 trillion, boosted by government bond issuance. However, corporate loan growth declined, particularly in medium and long-term loans, reflecting weak business confidence. Household borrowing showed marginal recovery with rebounds in short-term and long-term loans.

For 2024, credit growth is expected to slowly recover due to continued monetary easing, including potential RRR cuts, LPR adjustments, and fiscal policies aimed at improving business and consumer sentiment. GDP forecasts are 5.3% for 2023 and 4.8% for 2024.

Key supports include improved household spending and second-hand housing sales, while corporate investment remains constrained. The recovery in social financing is driven by fiscal deficit increases, with shadow financing declining. Overall, the outlook is for a modest economic rebound.