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Market Overview for Black Metals in June 2023

Following a repair in market sentiment at the end of May, the black metals sector exhibits signs of secondary stabilization, though not all segments are equally favorable. Key dynamics include production increases and inventory reductions, but certain sub-sectors like coking coal and coke remain structurally weaker. This analysis focuses on rebar, iron ore, coking coal, and coke, based on data up to June 2023.

• Rebar (螺纹):

  • Price decreases recorded in May (螺纹2310 down 538%), but recent indicators suggest a potential rebound.
  • Production rose, but inventory levels decreased significantly, indicating supply-demand imbalances.
  • Core view: Market may have stabilized, supporting light long positions.
  • Trade strategy recommendation: Short-cover cautiously and consider light buy entries.
  • Investment rating: ★★

• Iron Ore (铁矿):

  • Prices showed mixed results in May, with some increases; recent spot prices at Qingdao Port indicate minor gains.
  • Imports declined monthly, but port inventories decreased, suggesting tightening supply chains. Beneficiary shipping routes had variable monthly shipments.
  • Overall view: Stabilization signs are emerging, but risks and structual weaknesses persist relative to other black metals.
  • Trade strategy recommendation: Wait for confirmation of stabilization before engaging in buy positions.
  • Investment rating: ★

• Coking Coal and Coke (焦煤 and 焦炭):

  • Both experienced significant price declines in May (焦煤 down 11.3%, 焦炭 down 115.2%), reflecting ongoing structural challenges in this sub-sector.
  • Imports saw reductions, but inventory metrics show inconsistent recoverability; market sentiment remains cautious due to persistent weakness.
  • Core view: Initial stabilization may occur, but coking coal and coke are not expected to drive overall black metal performance.
  • Trade strategy recommendation: Maintain a defensive stance; enter buys only after clear stabilization signals.
  • Investment rating: ★ for both

Key trends point to a tentative recovery, with better fundamentals supporting potential rebounds, but overall volatility remains. Investors should monitor macroeconomic factors and inventory levels closely.