进口多元化和贸易转移：来自美国_-_中国贸易模式的洞察（英）-33页_2mb

United States- China Trade Patterns Analysis Summary

Background

The study examines the United States' import diversification patterns between 2017 and 2022, focusing on responses to trade tensions and disputes with China. The US-China trade war began in 2018 with the imposition of additional tariffs by both countries. These tariffs and existing trade policies significantly affected global trade flows, with the aim of reducing risks from supply chain disruptions and enhancing domestic competitiveness.

Key Findings

Import Diversification

The United States' import market became more diverse, particularly away from China, with a corresponding share reduction in China across various sectors. China's overall market share in the US fell by approximately 5 percentage points between 2017 and 2022. This was mainly attributed to the 7.5% and 25% additional tariffs introduced during this period.

An important finding is that diversification was less evident where China held exceptionally high initial market shares, indicating supply concentration challenges. The paper concludes that while reducing reliance on China was a key driver, supply diversification patterns were not primarily driven by broader geopolitical risks or proximity, but rather economic competitiveness and trade policy stance.

Trade Diversion Effects

China's declining market share provided opportunities for other countries to gain market share in the US. Vietnam performed particularly well across multiple sectors, demonstrating significant gains, especially in products like textiles, electronics, and machinery. However, U.S. policy factors such as tariffs and regional trade agreements, coupled with the economic competitiveness of exporting countries, outweighed geopolitical or geographic advantages for most trade diversion cases.

Factors Driving Changes

Econometric analysis indicates that tariffs significantly influenced market share changes:

• Products subject to higher tariff increases (e.g., 25%) experienced steeper market share declines.
• Trade agreements like the USMCA positively affected market share retention by suppliers from member countries.
• Countries with higher economic competitiveness or relative tariff advantages captured market gains effectively.

While somewhat surprising to find, geopolitical alignment and geographic proximity were not major drivers of trade diversion, though trade policy alignment became a factor when controlling for tariff variables.

Conclusions

The study concludes that supply diversification strategies following the trade war were largely a response to trade policies, with global supply chains continuing to evolve based on competitiveness factors. The findings underscore the importance of focusing on economic competitiveness and trade policies when examining implications for national supply chains.

This analysis contributes to understanding how trade tensions impact global trade flows and highlights the complex interplay between policy measures, economic factors, and supply chain adaptations. Further research could expand these findings to include other trade-relation dynamics and evolving policy frameworks.

Word count: 512 / 1,000