2022-12-14-联合国贸易发展委员会-2020年贸易低迷期间的贸易政策和贸易韧性_16页_397kb

Summary of UNCTAD Working Paper No. 1: Trade Analysis during COVID-19

Authors: Alessandro Nicita, Enxhi Tresa
Date: November 2022

Abstract:
This paper analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on international trade resilience in 2020, focusing on pre-pandemic trade policies such as tariffs, non-tariff measures, and regional trade agreements. Results indicate that higher trade costs correlate with larger declines in bilateral trade flows, and trade agreements mitigate these effects.

Key Findings:

• Higher trade costs reduce trade resilience during demand shocks, disproportionately affecting smaller and less-established exporters.
• Regional trade agreements (RTAs) and deep RTAs show stronger positive effects on trade survival rates and trade declines.
• The negative impact of trade costs is weaker for larger trade flows and established trading partnerships, depending on market shares.
• Trade policies play a crucial role in crisis resilience, supporting smaller exporters through reduced barriers.

Implications:

• Strengthening trade agreements and reducing trade costs can enhance international trade stability during economic downturns.
• Policymakers should prioritize measures to lower trade barriers for smaller firms to promote inclusive development.