2025-11-20-Goldman_Sachs-把握史上最大规模液化天然气（LNG）供应浪潮_13页_341kb

Commodities Research: Global Natural Gas Prices Outlook (10-Year View)

Key Points Summary

Introduction

Goldman Sachs introduces a ten-year outlook for global natural gas prices, dominated by the largest ever LNG supply wave. The analysis highlights China’s gas demand dynamics as reinforcing the conviction that global LNG excess supply is unlikely to be fully absorbed by demand. This imbalance may lead to US LNG export cancellations starting in 2028/2029, aiming to rebalance the global LNG market.

Short-Term Forecast (2026-2027)

• Supply Growth: Global LNG supply is projected to grow by 10% (Exhibit 3), driven by new export projects in the US and Canada.
• Price Projections:
  • TTF (Title Transfer Facility): 29 EUR/MWh in 2027
  • JKM (Japan Korea Marker): $7.30/mmBtu in 2027
• Storage Congestion: NW European storage is expected to reach over 90% capacity by the end of 2026.

Peak Oversupply (2028/2029)

• Oversupply Concerns: By 2028-2029, global LNG supply is set to peak at +168 mtpa (million tons per annum) relative to 2025 levels, overwhelming Asia’s demand.
• Congestion and Price Collapse: NW European storage is projected to reach 30-40% congestion, forcing TTF and JKM prices below variable costs of US LNG exports ($5/mmBtu JKM threshold), leading to US export cancellations.
• Price Projections:
  • TTF: 12 EUR/MWh
  • JKM: $4.45/mmBtu
  • Henry Hub: $2.75/mmBtu

Rebalancing and Future Outlook (Post-2030)

• China’s Role: Policy-driven decarbonization and infrastructure investments in China (and rest of Asia) are foreseen to drive significant incremental LNG demand.
• Market Rebalancing: By the early 2030s, this demand shift is expected to tighten global LNG markets, supporting prices back above $10/mmBtu for JKM and re-opening the US LNG export arbitrage.
• Henry Hub Outlook: From 2031, prices are expected to rise to $4.50/mmBtu, incentivizing US gas production growth.

Structural Risks

• Upstream Delays: Delays in upcoming LNG export projects pose a significant upside risk to forecasts.
• China Policy Uncertainty: Failure of China to support gas demand post-2030 could limit market recovery in this period.

Recommendations

• Short-Term Focus: Hedge against Henry Hub prices in 2028 and 2029 where prices could fall as low as $1.80/mmBtu.
• Long-Term Positioning: Consider equities in sectors benefiting from structural growth in gas demand, especially China-focused exposure if policies align.

Exhibit Highlights

• Exhibit 1 & 2: Show TTF and Henry Hub prices dipping significantly below forwards, indicating stressed market conditions in 2028-2029.
• Exhibit 4-6: Detail storage congestion levels and how price drops below variable costs trigger export cancellations.

Regulatory Disclosures

The report includes necessary disclaimers and regulatory disclosures covering roles and potential conflicts, ensuring independence of the analysis.

Conclusion

Goldman Sachs anticipates a US-led oversupply wave in 2028-2029, forcing price corrections globally and subsequent recovery starting from 2030, driven by Asian growth.