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ENERGY TOMORROW: Summary of LNG Market Outlook

Core Content Overview

This document presents a ten-year outlook for global natural gas prices, primarily driven by the largest ever LNG supply wave. It outlines the expected evolution of the LNG market, with a focus on how supply growth and demand dynamics will affect prices and market balances in Europe, Asia, and the US, including the potential for US LNG export cancellations and subsequent market rebalancing.

Main Views and Key Insights

1. Current and Near-Term Outlook (2026-2027)

• Global LNG Supply Growth: New LNG export projects have increased global LNG supply by 5% year-over-year (YoY) in 2025, and further growth is expected in 2026/27.
• European Gas Prices: TTF prices are forecasted to decline to 29/20 EUR/MWh in 2026/27, with JKM prices expected to fall to $10.50/$7.30/mmBtu.
• US LNG Export Arb: US gas prices are expected to remain above forwards, incentivizing production growth to meet export demand.
• Recommendation: A short TTF position is recommended for 3Q27 due to the gradual softening of gas prices.

2. 2028-2029: Oversupply and Market Rebalancing

• Peak Oversupply: Global LNG supply is expected to peak in 2028/29, with NW European storage reaching 30%-40% over capacity.
• Price Pressure: TTF and JKM prices will fall sharply below the variable cost of US LNG exports, leading to export cancellations similar to the 2020 experience.
• Henry Hub Impact: US gas prices are expected to drop to $2.70/$2.75/mmBtu, possibly as low as $1.80/mmBtu in the spring of 2028/29.
• Market Rebalancing: The oversupply is projected to be resolved within three months of export cancellations, leading to a temporary softening of prices.

3. Long-Term Outlook (Post-2030)

• Rebalancing and Re-tightening: Post-2030, the global LNG market is expected to rebalance and re-tighten due to increased demand from China's decarbonization efforts and infrastructure investment in Asia.
• Henry Hub Recovery: US LNG export arb is expected to reopen from 2031, with Henry Hub prices returning to the $4-$4.50/mmBtu range.
• TTF and JKM Recovery: TTF and JKM prices are forecasted to rise above 30 EUR/MWh and $10/mmBtu, respectively, from 2033.
• Policy Risk: China's decarbonization policies are identified as the main source of risk to the long-term forecast.

Key Information and Forecast Highlights

Price Forecasts

Key Drivers of Market Dynamics

• US LNG Export Cancellations: Expected in 2028/2029 to rebalance global LNG markets due to oversupply.
• European Storage Congestion: NW European storage is projected to reach over 90% by end-Oct26 and near-full by end-Oct27, pressuring prices.
• China's Role: China's decarbonization and infrastructure investments are expected to significantly boost LNG demand from 2030 onward.
• Market Rebalancing: The oversupply in 2028/2029 will likely be resolved through short-term export cancellations, with prices expected to remain low for most of the period.

Conclusion

The report outlines a bearish outlook for global LNG prices through 2028/2029, driven by a supply glut and the resulting export cancellations. However, it anticipates a long-term rebound in prices starting from 2031, fueled by increased demand from China and other Asian markets. The analysis highlights the importance of policy decisions, particularly in China, and the potential for US LNG export arb to reopen as global markets rebalance.