2011年-世界发展银行全球_Labor_Market_Institutions_and_Their_Effect_on_Labor_Market_Performance_in_OECD_and_European_Countries_13页_792kb

Summary of "Labor Market Institutions and their Effect on Labor Market Performance in OECD and European Countries"

Core Content

This document presents an econometric analysis of the relationship between labor market institutions and labor market performance in various groups of countries, including OECD members in North America and East Asia, the EU15 and New Member States (NMS), and EU New Member States and aspirants in the European Neighborhood. The study uses panel data and two-stage least squares regression with instrumental variables to estimate the impact of key labor market institutions on four labor market performance indicators: unemployment rate (UR), long-term unemployment rate (LTUR), employment rate (ER), and activity rate (AR).

Main Variables and Model

The regression model includes the following explanatory variables:

• EPL: Employment Protection Legislation (OECD index)
• MW: Minimum wage (cluster variable based on wage level and relative share to median wage)
• TU: Trade union density
• TAX: Total tax wedge on labor
• ALMP: Active Labor Market Policy expenditure as % of GDP
• UBRR: Initial unemployment benefits replacement rate
• UNBEN: Average unemployment benefit as % of average wage
• UNBENDUR: Maximum duration of unemployment benefits
• INFL: Annual rate of inflation
• LEFT: Government orientation (dummy variable for left-wing parties)

The dependent variables are the logarithms of the four labor market performance indicators.

Key Findings

Unemployment Rate (UR)

• OECD Sample: EPL, TAX, and ALMP have significant effects on UR. Higher EPL and TAX increase UR, while higher ALMP reduces it.
• European Union Sample: Similar patterns to the OECD sample, with EPL, TAX, and ALMP having significant effects.
• NMS EU + European Neighborhood: EPL, ALMP, and UNBEN have significant effects. EPL increases UR, while ALMP and UNBEN reduce it.
• Minimum Wage (MW): Has a significant negative effect on UR in Europe but a positive effect in non-European OECD countries.
• Unemployment Benefit Replacement Rate (UBRR): Negative effect on UR in Europe, but the effect is less consistent in other regions.
• Chow Tests: Suggest stability of regression coefficients between sub-samples at the 5% significance level.

Long-Term Unemployment Rate (LTUR)

• OECD Sample: TAX, EPL, and TU have significant effects. TAX and EPL increase LTUR, while TU reduces it.
• European Union Sample: Similar to OECD sample, with TAX and EPL increasing LTUR.
• NMS EU + European Neighborhood: Only ALMP has a significant effect on LTUR, reducing it.
• Minimum Wage (MW): Positive effect on LTUR in NMS sub-sample.
• Chow Tests: Suggest stability of regression coefficients between sub-samples at the 5% significance level.

Employment Rate (ER)

• OECD Sample: All labor institutions except MW have significant effects. EPL, TAX, and MW tend to reduce ER, while ALMP, TU, and UBRR increase it.
• European Union Sample: Similar patterns to OECD sample.
• NMS EU + European Neighborhood: Trade union density increases ER, while duration of unemployment benefits reduces it.
• Chow Tests: Suggest stability of regression coefficients between sub-samples at the 5% significance level.

Activity Rate (AR)

• OECD Sample: TAX, EPL, and TU have significant effects. Higher TAX and EPL reduce AR, while higher TU increases it.
• European Union Sample: Similar patterns to OECD sample.
• NMS EU + European Neighborhood: Only INFL and LEFT have significant effects. INFL increases AR, and LEFT (left-wing parties) reduces it.
• Chow Tests: Suggest stability of regression coefficients between sub-samples at the 5% significance level.

Main Views

• The impact of labor market institutions on labor market performance varies across regions and sub-samples.
• Active Labor Market Policies (ALMP) consistently have a positive effect on reducing unemployment and increasing employment and activity rates.
• Employment Protection Legislation (EPL) and labor taxation (TAX) generally have a negative impact on labor market performance.
• Minimum wage (MW) has a mixed effect, reducing unemployment in Europe but increasing it in non-European OECD countries.
• Unemployment benefit replacement rate (UBRR) and unemployment benefit duration (UNBENDUR) have ambiguous effects depending on the region.
• Trade union density (TU) has a positive effect on employment and activity rates but a negative effect on unemployment in some regions.
• Inflation (INFL) and government orientation (LEFT) are significant in explaining labor market outcomes, particularly in the European Neighborhood.

Key Information

• The study uses a pooled two-stage least squares regression with instrumental variables.
• Data sources include OECD, IZA, World Bank, Eurostat, ILO, and EBRD.
• Three sub-samples are analyzed:
  1. OECD members in other regions (North America and East Asia)
  2. EU15 and NMS
  3. EU NMS and aspirants in the European Neighborhood
• The analysis highlights the importance of active labor market policies in improving labor market outcomes.
• Political factors, such as government orientation, are considered in the model.
• The model has limited explanatory power due to data constraints and the inclusion of only a few countries in certain sub-samples.

Conclusion

The study shows that labor market institutions significantly influence labor market performance, but the direction and magnitude of these effects vary by region and country group. Active labor market policies tend to be the most consistent in improving labor market outcomes, while employment protection and labor taxation often have adverse effects. The role of minimum wage and unemployment benefits is more complex, with different impacts in European and non-European OECD countries. Political orientation also plays a role, with left-wing governments showing a negative effect on unemployment in some regions.