2014年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Uganda_Poverty_Reduction_Strategy_Paper_Progress_Report_24页_796kb

Uganda Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper: Progress Report Summary

I. Introduction

Core Content

• Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP): The document is Uganda's PRSP, serving as an Annual Progress Report on the first National Development Plan (NDP I), which was launched in 2010/11 and originally intended to cover five fiscal years until 2014/15.
• Objectives: The NDP marks a shift from the narrow focus on extreme poverty of the Poverty Eradication Action Plan (PEAP) to a broader agenda on structural change, wealth creation, and long-term development.
• Vision 2040: The longer-term development strategy of Uganda, aiming to transform the country from a peasant to a modern and prosperous society within 30 years.
• Structure: The report outlines progress made, remaining objectives, macroeconomic developments, and steps towards the preparation of the second National Development Plan (NDP II).

Key Points

• The report is prepared in consultation with stakeholders and development partners, including the World Bank and IMF.
• The current PRSP progress report updates the NDP for one year and will guide macroeconomic management prior to the introduction of NDP II.
• The report is structured into six main sections: Introduction, Progress towards NDP Objectives, Objectives until the end of NDP I, Macroeconomic Framework, Preparation of the Second NDP, and Conclusion.

II. Progress towards National Development Plan Objectives

Main Objectives

The NDP outlines eight strategic objectives aimed at enhancing economic growth, employment, infrastructure, social services, human capital, governance, and environmental sustainability.

Key Areas of Progress

1. Increasing household incomes and promoting equity

• GDP Growth: Lower than the 7.2% target, at 5.5% over the NDP period.
• Poverty Reduction: Poverty rate fell to 19.7% in 2012/13 from 31.1% in 2005/6, surpassing the first Millennium Development Goal (MDG) target.
• Regional Progress: Significant reductions in poverty across all regions, with the Northern region being the poorest but showing marked improvement since 2006. The Eastern region has seen slower progress due to adverse weather, high dependency ratios, and population pressures.

2. Enhancing the availability and quality of gainful employment

• Wage Job Growth: Total wage jobs increased by 4.1% over the NDP period, with notable growth in agriculture (14.2%) and casual wage jobs (19.8%).
• Constraints: Inadequate skills and poor management practices continue to limit job creation. A comprehensive evaluation of employment strategies is underway.

3. Improving the stock and quality of economic infrastructure

• Roads: Paved road coverage increased from 4% to 16.6%, significantly improving market integration.
• Rail: Progress has been below expectations, with delays in rolling stock investment and poor relations with transport firms.
• Energy: Significant investments in hydropower (Bujagali, Karuma, Isimba) have increased installed capacity, with associated transmission infrastructure being developed.
• Challenges: Many infrastructure projects have not advanced as planned, prompting reforms in project selection and planning.

4. Increasing access to quality social services

• Health: Improved supply chain management led to a doubling of health facilities without medicine stock-outs. Access to antiretroviral drugs for HIV/AIDS patients increased from 44% to 83%.
• Education: Net primary enrollment improved, with a focus on literacy, numeracy, and life skills. Technical and vocational education enrollment increased, though still below target.
• Water and Sanitation: Progress on coverage has been slower than expected, with rural and urban water coverage at 64% and 70% respectively, both below the target of 77% and 100%.

5. Promoting science, technology, innovation, and ICT

• ICT Growth: Rapid expansion of the telecommunications sector has led to a surge in mobile phone usage, increasing from 33 to 53 subscribers per 100 Ugandans.
• Benefits: Mobile phones have enabled cost-effective delivery of services such as money transfers and market information dissemination.

6. Enhancing human capital development

• HDI: The Human Development Index (HDI) improved from 0.438 in 2008 to 0.484 in 2013, but is expected to fall short of the target of 0.572.
• Life Expectancy: Increased from 50.4 to 59.2 years, surpassing the target of 52.4.
• Literacy: Rose from 73.6% to 74.6%, though growth is below expectations.

7. Strengthening good governance, defence, and security

• Democratic Governance: The country has seen a deepening of democratic principles and citizen participation, with peaceful elections conducted.
• Legal System: Strengthened through the appointment of more judges and improved presence, though case backlogs persist.
• Reforms: Efforts to strengthen local council courts and alternative dispute resolution mechanisms are underway.

8. Promoting sustainable population and use of the environment and natural resources

• Environmental Commitment: The NDP emphasizes sustainable development, targeting the preservation and restoration of forests and wetlands.
• Environmental Police: A new unit has been created to improve enforcement of environmental laws.
• Long-term Strategies: Improved agricultural productivity and non-agricultural opportunities are expected to reduce pressure on natural resources.

III. Objectives until the end of NDP I

Key Focus Areas

• Public Investment Management: Strengthening project screening, planning, and implementation.
• Domestic Resource Mobilisation: Increasing revenue to support infrastructure and social programs.
• Skills Development: Enhancing the availability of practical skills to meet economic needs.
• Agricultural Development: Boosting productivity and value addition to increase household incomes and create jobs.

IV. Macroeconomic Framework

Macroeconomic Developments

• Economic Growth: Lower than expected due to external and domestic shocks, with GDP growth at 5.5%.
• Fiscal Tightening: Required in 2011/12 due to a temporary macroeconomic instability.
• Debt Sustainability: Government is updating its macroeconomic strategy to ensure debt sustainability and efficient project implementation.

Updated Strategy

• The new framework will support increased public investment while considering the country's absorptive capacity and commercial viability.

V. Preparation of the Second National Development Plan

• Planning Process: Ongoing efforts to prepare NDP II, with a focus on sustaining progress and addressing remaining challenges.
• Stakeholder Involvement: A multi-stakeholder technical committee is coordinating the mid-term review of the current NDP.
• Future Goals: Emphasis on structural transformation, poverty reduction, and long-term economic development.

VI. Conclusion

• Progress Achieved: Uganda has made significant strides in poverty reduction, infrastructure development, and social service delivery.
• Challenges Remain: Lower-than-expected GDP growth, insufficient fiscal space, and gaps in human capital development and environmental sustainability.
• Future Direction: The government aims to strengthen public investment, enhance skills, and promote sustainable economic transformation through the preparation of NDP II.