2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Kenya_Poverty_Reduction_Strategy_Paper_Progress_Report_31页_1mb

Summary of Kenya: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper—Progress Report (November 2011)

Core Content

This document is a progress report on Kenya’s First Medium Term Plan (MTP 1) covering 2008–2012, prepared by the IMF as background for consultations with the Kenyan government. It outlines the progress made in implementing the MTP, the updated MTP program for 2012–2013, the macroeconomic framework, and preparations for the Second MTP (2013–2017). The report also discusses the impact of macroeconomic changes and challenges on MTP implementation and highlights the progress towards achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).

Main Pillars of MTP Implementation

1. Economic Pillar – Accelerating GDP Growth to 10%

• Objective: Achieve sustained annual GDP growth of 10%.
• Challenges: The initial implementation was affected by domestic shocks (post-election violence, drought) and external shocks (global financial crisis, oil prices).
• Progress:
  • Real GDP growth improved from 2% in 2008 to 5.6% in 2010 and is expected to be around 5% in 2011.
  • The updated macroeconomic framework reflects a more realistic growth scenario, assuming current conditions.
  • Key Sectors: Tourism, Agriculture, Manufacturing, Trade, Financial Services, and BPO.
  • Tourism: Recovery is ongoing; international arrivals increased from 1.2 million in 2008 to 1.6 million in 2010 and 13.6% increase in the first half of 2011.
  • Agriculture: Recovery from negative growth in 2008–2009; positive growth of 6.3% in 2010.
  • Manufacturing & Trade: Growth slowed to 3.1% and 5.5% respectively, partly due to the agriculture sector's performance.
  • Financial Services: Fully recovered, recording 8.8% growth in 2010.
  • BPO: 5,000 acres secured for Konza Technology City, Master Plan completed, and tender processes ongoing.

2. Social Pillar – Achieving a Cohesive Society with Equitable Social Development

• Objective: Improve social development and ensure equitable access to education and health services.
• Progress:
  • Education:
    • Early Childhood Development (ECD) enrollment increased from 1.69 million in 2007 to 2.19 million in 2010.
    • Primary school Net Enrollment Ratio (NER) rose from 42.1% to 50% between 2007 and 2010/11.
    • Transition rate from primary to secondary education reached 72.5% by FY 2010/11, with a higher rate among female pupils (75.3% vs. 69.9%).
    • Textbook to pupil ratio improved from 1:3 to 1:1 in lower primary and from 1:2 to 1:1 in upper primary.
    • University enrollment increased by 53% from 118,239 in 2007/08 to 180,978 in 2010/11.
    • School enrollment in Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs) increased from 27% to 42.5%.
  • Health:
    • HIV prevalence decreased from 7.4% to 6.3% between 2007 and 2010.
    • Under-5 mortality rate fell from 92 per 1,000 in 2007 to 74 in 2010/11.
    • Immunization coverage for children under 1 year increased from 73% to 83%.
    • Malaria cases decreased from 19% to 14% of in-patients.
    • 251 health centers and dispensaries have been rehabilitated, and 72 hospitals are undergoing infrastructure improvement.
    • Cash transfers to Orphans and Vulnerable Children (OVCs) increased from 1% to 15.6% of eligible OVCs by 2010/11.
    • Over 3.4 million insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) distributed, with significant coverage increase among children and pregnant women.
    • Indoor residual spraying conducted in 600,000 households in malaria-prone districts.

3. Poverty Level and Progress on MDG Goals

• Poverty Incidence: 45.9% in 2006, expected to drop to 42% by 2015 if current trends continue.
• MDG Status:
  • MDG 1 (Poverty): Unlikely to be met by 2015; supportive environment is strong due to increased pro-poor spending.
  • MDG 2 (Education): Potentially achievable; free primary and secondary education has improved access and transition rates.
  • MDG 3 (Gender Equality): Potentially achievable; new constitution mandates 30% female representation in Parliament and government appointments.
  • MDG 4 (Child Mortality): Unlikely to be met; progress is fair but more funding is needed.
  • MDG 5 (Maternal Health): Unlikely to be met; maternal mortality ratio increased from 414 to 488 between 2003 and 2009.
  • MDG 6 (Health): Potentially achievable; HIV and malaria control efforts have been effective.
  • MDG 7 (Environment): Potentially achievable; efforts to protect water towers and increase tree planting are ongoing.
  • MDG 8 (Global Partnership): Unlikely to be met; however, the External Resources Policy and KJAS have improved aid effectiveness and ICT development.

Key Infrastructure and Institutional Developments

• Infrastructure: Significant progress in power generation, road construction, and ICT development.
  • Installed power capacity increased by 18% (from 1,197 MW to 1,412 MW).
  • 719.4 km of roads constructed and 1,002 km rehabilitated in 2010/11.
  • Laying of undersea and terrestrial fiber optic cables improved ICT efficiency and reduced costs.
  • Jomo Kenyatta International Airport modernization and Kisumu International Airport expansion completed.
• Operating Environment: Improved through national manpower survey, skills inventory, and the development of a National Spatial Plan.
• Institutional Framework:
  • MTP review process involved consultations with stakeholders and independent experts.
  • A validation workshop was planned before the end of 2011.
  • The new Constitution was implemented, leading to the creation of oversight and accountability institutions.
  • The Independent Election and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) was established and appointed by November 2011.
  • All required legislation for the Constitution was enacted by August 2011.

Updated MTP Program for 2012–2013

• Objective: Update the MTP program to reflect changed macroeconomic conditions and lay the foundation for the Second MTP (2013–2017).
• Consultations: Stakeholder input was used to fast-track implementation of flagship projects.
• Policy Framework: Revised to align with current economic challenges and growth projections.
• Medium-Term Expenditure Framework: Reformulated to ensure sustainable implementation.

Conclusion

The report concludes that while the MTP has made notable progress, the achievement of the MDGs by 2015 remains uncertain for some goals. The updated MTP program for 2012–2013 is expected to guide the country in the intervening period and lay the groundwork for the Second MTP. Continued focus on infrastructure, education, health, and institutional reforms is essential to achieving Vision 2030 objectives.