2025-01-08-Escap-2024-2025年亚太地区商品和服务贸易展望_23页_1mb

ASIA-PACIFIC TRADE AND INVESTMENT TRENDS 2024/2025 Summary

Core Content

The report provides an overview of trade and investment trends in the Asia-Pacific region for 2024 and 2025, highlighting both merchandise and commercial services trade developments. It emphasizes the role of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) in facilitating trade growth and sustainable development in the region.

Main Points

Merchandise Trade

• Trade Growth in 2024: Merchandise trade expanded in 2024, with real exports and imports increasing by 3.4% and 3.6%, respectively, outperforming global averages. Nominal trade growth was 2.2% and 4.1%.
• Regional Trade Surplus: The Asia-Pacific region's merchandise trade surplus dropped to 2.3% of total trade, down from 3.2% in 2023, due to faster import growth than exports.
• Global Share: The region's share of global nominal exports and imports rose slightly to 38.9% and 36.7%, respectively.
• Subregional Performance:
  • Export Growth: South-East Asia (SEA) led with 5.8% real export growth, followed by ENEA (3.2%), SSWA (3.6%), and NCA (0.9%).
  • Import Growth: SEA saw the strongest import growth (10.3%), while NCA experienced a contraction (-3.1%).
• Trade Partners:
  • Intra-Asia-Pacific trade accounted for 53.4% of total exports and 55.6% of total imports in 2024.
  • China was the largest trading partner, representing 23.0% of the region's (excluding China) total trade.
  • The European Union and the United States each accounted for 13.6% and 13.7% of total exports, respectively.
  • Imports were more heavily sourced from the European Union (10.2%) than the United States (7.2%).

Commercial Services Trade

• Trade Growth in 2024: Commercial services trade rebounded, with exports and imports growing by 8.6% and 6.2%, respectively, surpassing global growth rates of 5.8% and 5.5%.
• Sectoral Contributions:
  • Travel and tourism services were the largest contributors, accounting for 20.5% of exports and 24.7% of imports.
  • Other significant sectors included transport (21.3% of exports, 27.4% of imports), construction (17.1% export growth), and goods-related services (9.4% export growth).
• Subregional Performance:
  • The Pacific subregion recorded the highest export growth (13%), while NCA had the lowest (5.3%).
  • ENEA led in import growth, followed by SSWA, SEA, and the Pacific.
  • NCA was the only subregion to experience a decline in services imports (-3.1%).

Near Term Prospects (2025)

• Merchandise Trade: Expected to continue growth, with real exports projected to increase by 2.7%–3.5%. Developed economies are anticipated to grow faster than developing ones.
• Commercial Services Trade: Exports and imports are projected to grow by 8% and 10.9%, respectively, driven by travel and digitally delivered services.
• Uncertainties: Trade growth faces risks from slower economic recovery, trade wars, and protectionist policies, especially from the United States. These could reduce merchandise export growth to one-third of 2024 levels.

Key Information

• Trade Surplus: The Asia-Pacific region's trade surplus in 2024 was 2.3% of total merchandise trade.
• Intra-Regional Trade: Accounts for nearly 60% of the region's total exports and imports in 2024.
• Trade Reconfiguration: Ongoing shifts in trade patterns, especially in NCA, where exports are being redirected from the EU to SSWA and ENEA.
• China's Role: China remains a key trade partner, with significant influence on regional trade dynamics, including export growth and import demand.
• Policy Risks: Protectionist measures, especially from the US, could impact trade growth, with potential retaliatory actions adding to uncertainty.
• Subregional Variability: Intra-subregional trade varies significantly, with the Pacific having the lowest share (5.1%) and ENEA the highest (25.4%).

Conclusion

The Asia-Pacific region has shown strong trade growth in 2024, with both merchandise and commercial services trade expanding. While 2025 projections indicate continued growth, the region faces significant uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions, economic slowdowns, and trade policy shifts. Intra-regional trade remains a critical component, and China's economic performance and trade relationships play a pivotal role in shaping the region's trade dynamics.